AK top pair, semidry board at 70bb eff vs passive fish
Villain is playing 70/15. Isolated his openlimp.
Lately I use OB shoves on turn a lot against shallow stacks (50-70bb effectve) with TPTK against passive whales.
GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Pokeit
UTG: $17.28 (69 bb)
MP (Hero): $25.13 (101 bb)
CO: $12.31 (49 bb)
BU: $77.92 (312 bb)
SB: $25.00 (100 bb)
BB: $25.00 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with K♠ A♣
UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, 4 players fold, UTG calls $1
Flop: ($2.85) 6♥ A♥ Q♦ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.25, UTG calls $2.25
Turn: ($7.35) (30bb) 8♠ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $21.63 (all-in)
Villain has 55bb (13,75$) left here, so it's a 1.9x overbet
My thought process is that I wouldn't fold against a raise here anyway. he may have draws and very likely call with AJ, AT, A9, possible any ace, really. Downside is I do fold out quite a lot of second pairs and some draws too.
I have 18% equity against two pairs, crushed by sets obviously, but as I said... I wouldn't fold with so much money in the pot already.
Which one is higher EV here against this player type? 20-25bb bet, or overbet for 55bb?
2 Replies
As a representative of the fish, i think betting less here and shoving on the river would make me fold worse hands less often.
I think a 20bb bet and a push on the river has a higher EV because the fish don't always look at the size of the stack, but they do look at the size of the bet. Not in categories like regs, of course, but something like 'I can still afford this $5 call with my third pair, but this all-in is too much'.
It is better to make a regular-sized bet and the fish will not go anywhere on the river and will call for the last money out of desperation.
