Jacking Hell

I think we call and pay off the random 77.

Bigger overpairs than yours should i think 4b pre. I dont think he has any boats here (do sets just call flop? i could see checking back turn when boated up tho) besides 77, and i think we would have heard from a flush on the flop or at least on the turn. In general, i see a lot more random bullshit with a club blocker trying to make a play here vs your sizing than slowplayed value or 77 that ran into a boat (it might be player dependent).

Do you check your flushes on the turn?

In MDA it's so sizing sensitive.

C30-X-R30 is overbluffed

C50-X-R50 is underbluffed

I'd call it off.

Interested in results though

Thinking about it some more I’d rather have JJ here than stronger overpairs like AA because we are hoping he turns a hand like AQ/AK with a club into a bluff and AA blocks his bluffs.

Smaller otf. I would keep betting turn, ofc if you think he will bet all those low pp and FD if you check to him checking is better. River is not ideal 77 def in his range, i would also size down this street, probably fold vs AQo is only natural bluff and that often bets turn or even fold or 4bet pre same for AKo

The problem with folding river is if you are folding JJ here you are folding A♣K♣ since he is representing a boat or quads.

Which means you have 0% calling range. Now range folding can be okay in very under bluffed spots but this isn’t one of them.

He can also have KQo with a club. I think you call this hand and fold QQ-AA

You are looking at data for BTNvBB and this spot pre is much closer to HJvBB given its iso and then 3bet. As long as IP is not overbluffing you are not getting expolited even if you fold every bluff catcher in your range.

It's not the same because solvers jam weak flushes since they value bet way thinner than MDA.

A♣K♣ is a bluff catcher in reality but never a 0EV bluff catcher in theory which makes you range fold. Solvers jam all flushes here as IP and population is way more polar than theory.

So what is wrong with range folding if non of the hands have good enough odds to call?

Why do you think we don't have odds?

There are actually more bluff candidates than value candidates. The MDA doesn't take into account specific board textures and runouts. The more plausible bluffs/the less plausible value the more we call.

So our hand is basically the best hand (maybe TT no club) to call with. I don't think range folding is correct here and I'd rather call JJ no club than A♣K♣. A solver will hate that decision but solvers jam merged (relatively) and population jams overly polar.

Very cool hand Ceres!

Ofc you call if you think odds are right.

I guess i just dont see all of those bluffs.

I think preflop expands Villain's bluffs not the opposite.

Because Ceres 3bet from the BB over an isolation raise that makes his range stronger which will make AK call relatively more than if it was just a standard RFI 3bet dynamic.

So now IP has more AK with a ♣ that is tempted to bluff river.

Here is a delightful picture of Natalie Imbruglia:

She is torn. As was I when IP jammed this river.

That is max 3 combos which often will 4bet pre, raise flop or bet turn, so by the river i wont not give him more then 1 combo of AcKx

AxKc does it too.

And IP is representing low combos of value so any extra combo of bluff means a lot in this spot.

I'd be shocked if someone flats any flush as IP here, even at like 25nl

Isn't Jc way better unless they don't fold AJo much pre?

Yeah Jc is better under those conditions but I think AJo calls pre.

I don’t think flushes almost ever call flop and then X that specific turn. The paired turn incentivizes fast playing flushes so I don’t think IP will have many OTR.

I think my point earlier which may not have been communicated effectively is this is not going to be a flush very often because he doesn’t really have them. I do think flushes jam river though if he somehow gets there this way.

Ceres did you end calling here?

I would use some kind of block size on all 3 streets on this runout. idk about the river. probably fold.

I can confirm there is 'a result' to this hand (as in, I physically survived until the end of it).

The discussion is interesting though. I thought it was less close than it seems to be.

How could your hand be worth a xr on turn but 18bb on a brick river?

I wasn't sure about the river bet at all. My thinking along the lines of:

- he only ever has weak/middling pair/SDV, and if I go too large that overfolds. Whereas a more blocky size will print via overcalls.

So people think a badreg will call larger sizing with a bluffcatcher? I think I need to convince myself that's true. That seems less likely to me than them overcalling 88/99/TT… which is still the majority of their range… ?

I tried modelling the spot in Pio but gto IP has zero raising range otf, which means they get to the turn with basically a gamillion flushes, and I doubt that’s true. Also agree he bets 90% of them ott.

Unexpected...

When I lock IP to raise our flop cbet (half flushes, sets, whatever amount of OPs), our strategy and EV changes dramatically on the turn and now we should bet/call or even straight jam. We want the hand to end in a fistfight here and now:

So the biggest mistake is ott? I tried to play it like a 3bp line but I can see the need to hammer home protection in this scenario now the checking range is ass.

Results:

The reveal is never fun when they have what they are representing.

Good call though imo.

I just think if he is going to bluff he would do it earlier in the hand. I don't mind your line its just unfortunate to get shoved on but I think he has 66 77 and flopped nut flush quite a lot and not a lot of bluffs

Vs reg i dont think calling here is a great idea. You are still pretty uncapped and villain is super capped i think as long villain is not thinking on level 0 (i see weakness not thinking about ranges) or level 2 ( thinking already on the flop/turn ahead and slowplaying with the intention to raise river anticipating that you will not give him much value). Most regs are on level 1. especially when there is not much history / information this can change normaly when playing more hands vs the same regular.
So this is a perfect example of the situation they just have the 1 combo wich they are repping. One more thing is that i think that he could find rather some thin shoves like QQ KK that he slowplayed turn then random bluff shoves.
Like i mentioned if he is a rec and aggro tendencys then ofcurse call.
About the other streets i would like flop smaller ( we realy dont want to inflate the pot oop to much on that kind of boards oop)
Turn we need to continue barreling and nice findings that you had in pio with going big as soon villain is fastplaying to much so alot to take away from that hand.