Bluff Donk OTR
GG Poker - $0.05 Ante $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 266.4 BB
UTG+1: 129.2 BB
MP: 209.4 BB
MP+1: 484 BB
MP+2: 324.2 BB
CO: 223.4 BB
BTN: 202.8 BB
Hero (SB): 232.4 BB
BB: 102.6 BB
9 players post ante of 0.4 BB, Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 5 BB) Hero has 8♣ 9♣
UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, UTG calls 7 BB, BTN calls 7 BB
Flop: (28.6 BB, 3 players) J♣ 7♥ 7♦
Hero bets 8.8 BB, fold, BTN calls 8.8 BB
Turn: (46.2 BB, 2 players) K♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 34.8 BB, Hero calls 34.8 BB
River: (115.8 BB, 2 players) J♥
Hero bets 92.8 BB
Villain plays passively and I assume that he doesn't call his bluff catchers against me. For example, I have this hand from him (A open folded): Openraise/call OOP with Ax, check/call AT7ss, check, check/fold on 7 against my overbet.
OTTH: I think that he will call many 7x on the flop. So I don't give myself a lot of fold equity ott. It would also be bad if I were to bet and have to give up my EQ against his all-in raise.
If he bets the turn, I'm basically always giving him some 7x combo. Therefore, I should have good implieds, so I call with the plan to donk on the river if I hit.
The J on the river is interesting. It can only be in my range, so I decided to donk. It shouldn't be so easy for Villain to find bluffs within my range. Many players would continue to bet their flush draw on the turn and my bluff donk would only make sense with them.
1 Reply
Wouldn't squeeze. We're OOP with a middling SC, too many things have to go right:
a) they have to overfold - unlikely without any A blockers
b) they have to overfold post (nah)
c) we have to hit the nuts OOP on some kind of super flop vs two wide ranges with a combo that almost never wins at showdown and hates bluffcatching