25NL Blitz river spot

Kind of hard to think of many bluffs after the A hits and I’m not sure i I’ve ever seen this line on this type of runout, so I guess fold and assume that it’s underbluffed.

A rec will likely arrive to the flop with a ton of hands even in these positions. Which means he has all 33, 44, AQ. Probably has most QT. If the rec goes "mergy" with a big donk line with A3/A4, those also got there. The rec might also panic shove Ax that hit the river because they don't want to x/call? I just don't see enough PPs or random Tx type hands that go big donk all the way, also not seeing a rec having a lot of 98o offsuit etc that just goes crazy if they even get to the flop. What does MDA say about big donks?

Full stack opening 2.5x doesn't seem like a fish.

Vs reg this is unlikely to be a bluff reg don't bluff off a stack into uncapped range esp with these weird lines.

Folding turn is also an option. You don't beat any value and puts are not clean.

He donked 3 streets in a spot you never donk and has a large VPIP/PFR gap. You don’t think he is a fish?

Regs don't normally open 2.5 UTG, and after the big flop donk this is 100% some kind of fish even after a small sample. Probably the aggro kind too, so the river kind of sucks when so many of the bluffs and merges improve.

Pre makes is more likely he is a reg post that he is a fish, but i have seen bots play this line and regs also sometimes miss read the action. I would not say he is 100% fish or reg on just one hand.

Okay but it’s more likely he is a fish than a reg right?

idk
If he is a fish you should have some idea after 17 hands. If he opened with weird sizing or limp that are main tells.

I'm actually in the reg camp. Fish statistically almost never open 2.5x. It's usually a round number, as they don't use hotkeys etc.

Most regs open around 2.5x from UTG, so I'd bet on that being the case here.

Fish also don't often donk for 75% size:

Regs, however, do donk flops at low frequency and will barrel turns and rivers more than gto afterwards.

Recs overbluff this line in general but the texture makes me a bit uncomfortable- I think I still would call this combo just about.

I might consider just raising flop as well as it tends to be a range of a lot of random stuff, draws and some top pair holdings with the odd set. You might be able to get away from his top of range by raising the flop small.

In this line though I’d expect a call against a 40+ VPIP rec to be slightly higher ev than fold but I’m not enjoying it.

Granted as Zkesic pointed out, villain might be a reg. If so I’ll fold this river as it will probably make him underbluff slightly on the pot odds but it’ll be close.

Need a read. (NAR)

Few things you can do to *get* a read like 'call'. But that collapses the waveform and defeats the exercise. Fol;d.

Thanks for the breakdown ZK.

You make a great case for him being a reg but what we also need to look at his VPIP/PFR gap.

He’s 47/23 over 17 hands which means he only raised first in less than half time.

I’m going to use the HUD calculator to figure out the odds of him having a VPIP/PFR gap of < than 9 over this small sample.

Thanks for the breakdown.

My problem with raising flop is we are in a tough spot if he jams and we also fold out his bluffs.

Another reason I prefer calling is let’s say we raise flop and villain calls. Turn blanks. Are you betting turn? It’s not clear with a middling hand.

If you had to weight the probability is it more likely villain is a fish or a reg?

Okay as Haizemberg stated we don't know if he is a fish but we can make some calculations. I think it's very likely he is but let's try to figure it out.

ZK pointed out the Donk 75% as a good data point for him being a reg and that is something I didn't consider in game but he's right.

I'm going to use the HUD calculator to try to figure out some probabilities.

This is going to be my definition of a fish.

VPIP: He has a 47 VPIP over 17 hands. A fish is anyone (by our definition) with a 33 VPIP or greater.

Okay now we can't learn anything from his PFR since it is right in range with a reg. But what we can learn from is the gap between his VPIP and PFR. Anything over a 9% gap is considered a fish by our definition.

The Gap is 23.6%. I'll be conservative and say 23%.

Okay so now we have 2 data points that heavily favor Villain being a fish.

1. The VPIP --->There is only an 8.7% chance he has a 32 VPIP or less.

2. The VPIP/PFR Gap----->There is only a 2.1% chance he has a VPIP/PFR gap of 9 or less.

So while the Donk 75 is a bad data point for him being a fish. And the 2.5x open is a bad data point for him being a fish.

The other 2 data points are very good for him being a fish.

And since fish donk more than regs and the other two data points point to him being a fish. It's more likely he is a fish than a reg imo.

Although it is closer than I initially thought.

Edit: Another data point that points towards him being a fish is the turn. Both regs and Fish will barrel turn after donking flop more than GTO but Fish will bet more than Regs.

Regs at 56%

Fish at 69%

Population reads ftw.

Imo, a few things individually suggest the villain is likely a spewy gambler-type rec profile, the VPIP, the VPIP-PFR gap, and playing donk75-75-jam line. Even with small samples these combined will make will profile more likely. So I'm with CrazyAndy and my plan would be to call down basically all runouts and let them do their thing

Agree with shipnickle about the mergey shoves but that profile (if true) is random enough and won't give up draws to make call +EV. I also would not raise flop/turn for those reasons

Knowing preflop and postflop timings and what they did in the other 8 hands would also be useful

Nice stats for next time :p

I did something similar

The probability of playing 8 or more out of 17 hands if the true VPIP was 25% (i.e., if they were a reg and we assume probability of playing a hand is 0.25) is 5%. And it's 10% for reg with 30% VPIP.

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/b...

Agreed!

Also more likely they're a fish because having 17 hands on a reg is somewhat rare if you've played a lot recently

I have fish donking flop 7x as much on Q high flops, and using 75% pot 5x as often at 50-100nl

Also I see 2.5x from fish not being rare (10-20% of opens), but it definitely points to a less spewy fish

All great points.

I like the fact that I only have 17 hands on him (I actually had 21 hands total not 17 so I should of put that in the OP) make it more likely he is a fish. I play 25nl blitz almost every day and I have never seen this player before.

You didn't include info that he is full stacked opens 2.5x and it's 5 handed game in your calculations.

But anyway if it's super easy fold vs reg and it's close vs fish, you have easy fold even if there is only 5% chance he is a reg. It's effectively negative freeroll.

I see more fish open 2.5 utg more than regs. Regs hardly ever do it utg.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a reg donk 3/4 in a 3b pot, and the one who use donk bets are either regfish or they know something about theory and use small donks.

The player being UTG is pretty important too since regs aren’t going to go crazy after their UTG gets 3b.

Edit: 5 handed but that doesn’t change anything.

It’s not close vs a fish is the whole point.

And it’s much more likely he is a fish than a reg. You can’t weight them the same.

Also where is it 5 handed?

In your HH.
You think fish way iverbluff this line?