Cooler or Mistake?

Why did you believe that a pp would not call given the depth allows set mining?

Hey Polar,

I think this call is very recreational in the MP vs EP OR & I considered villain a regular. Many times you'll get squeezed, or CO/BTN will overcall & you'll play 44 OOP, or in the case where Villain calls 44s in MP and everybody folds, he's against a 17% OR range, and even when he make his set, other sets will dominate him. This call is -EV from my humble opinion, and I don't see many players doing it, besides recreational. I still don't see a reason for him to call here with 44, rather than being a mistake on his side. Set mining EP vs MP is not so attractive IMO

However, it is my mistake not believing he could 44 I guess, hence my question, would you call here?

As villain calls in MP with baby PP, he could be calling 22,33,55 too, and he could be jamming those too, thinking he's against some AK,AQ, AJ (that was another reason why I called)

What do you think?
Thanks

Never fold AA because if you fold AA, then what do you call with after opening from UTG, some people never open 44 or 54s from UTG so if you fold AA you are basically folding your entire range except A4s which you might choose to check it on the flop! If you were to fold AA then you are folding your entire range!

Totally agree, another reason why I called here is ''If I am not calling with AAs, what am I calling with?''

The problem I see is that Villain's line, Raise OTT - Jam OTR IP is way too strong, and players at these stakes will underbluff this spot. I don't see how villain can find the bluffs that the solver suggests. If villain doesn't find those bluffs and play unbalanced, then AAs start folding.

What do you think?

one thing that would make me lean more towards a fold is that we block Axcc, but there is only 1 combo of A4h left. interestingly enough, v doesn't raise flop which discounts sets/ Axc heavily. he could have 22 that would play this way but that's about it from a "bluff" perspective. I think there are 2 likely scenarios. one where he has either A2s and 4x, and one, unlikely scenario where he has slowplayed flopped sets/2p

scenario 1:

25% equity
scenario 2:

60.5% equity

so if we do a quick equity calculation (call/pot+call)

we get 75/125=0.6 or 60%, we can see that we need a minimum of 60% to break even, which, even in the best case scenario, we only just have. albeit this is given that we include only value hands which i believe to be the raising range of most villains at the micros. we could do a breakdown if you want to start including more fd combos but i just don't think your avg 25nl player is making. plus we have to factor in the blocking properties of having Ac which removes a ton of said bluffs.

all in all, it stinks, but i actually think this can be a fold at 25nl. although vs population, i'd flick in the call

edit: you could include AK/AQ/AT but villain has reg stats and is most likely 3b most of these hands from MP and even with these factored in, it's a breakeven call, I just don't think v is going to be flatting these hands ip both pre and otf.

in summary: call w/o the Ac, fold w/

What an amazing breakdown!

I also agree with the fact that at the micros, population won't get too out of line with bluffs in these kind of spots, therefore is very reasonable to discard villain's possible bluffs from his line.

Also, as you mentioned most Acx bluffs aren't there as I am blocking them, therefore this call is -EV from my POV.

Thank you so much Enam3l

I 100% disagree with you Enam3

The first thing I want to talk about is the math

When you calculate pot odds, you must have a result that is less than 50%, even if the villain bets $1,000,000$ into 3 cents. And you are telling me that you need 60%!!!

Let me show you how to calculate pot odds it is A Risk ratio so it is call+bet+pot to call

When someone bets 3x pot, the pot odds are 3+1+3 to 3, which is 7 to 3. As a ratio, it is 3/7 ~ 0.43; you need to win 43% of the time when someone bets 3x pot!

Think about it there was no pot, someone betted a $ and you could only call and win 50% of the time, you break-even in that case, now if there was a pot added before the flip of the coin you clearly can see that is profitable even though you have only 50% chance of winning!

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2nd issue is the very nitty ranges

Many people don't flat 22, 33, or 44 from HJ, and the people who do and call 44 on the flop are usually the same people who call every other pocket pair so he could easily have 22, a busted spade flush draw, or any two pair combo that sees the bet size as too small!

CALL CALL CALL

Yeah I messed up the pot odds calc (early morn) and agree it’s a call, I just wanted to play devils advocate and find some world where we can fold here. HOWEVER I stand by my argument that I don’t think population is finding bluffs here with AQ/AJ etc Otr. AT makes a lot of sense, as does baby Ax. Sorry, I don’t do much review. I’ll look at it again when I get home..

..in the name of science

so our pot odds calculation is risk/(risk+reward)
ie. 75/(75+75+50)
75/200
=0.375

so we need 37.5% equity to call

..it's a snap call if v isn't a super nit, which at 26/20/9, he's not.

coffee+walk in fresh air later, brain now working at a slightly higher level, (I emphasise slightly)..

this is why I don't grind mornings..

my only counter for what is a sinking ship of an argument is that we have to discount some Ax hands that aren't 3b pre and FDs that aren't raising boards where they can''t credibly rep the 4 (as mentioned, 44/45 and A4s are mostly either 3b or folded pre). other than that, I concede

herpaderp

furthermore the EV of our call, as calculated by (%W * $W) – (%L * $L) would be

EV=(0.75*125)-(0.25*75)
so our call is +75bbs and is printing money

many apologies for the spam and any further blunders I may have made defending my post. I promise a higher level of quality control from future hh review endeavours..