Kings need help

I wanna say fold considering donk / value / protection lead OTT but I'd probably call and evaluate river.

I mean it depends on pur flop stray. Unless we check AK and AQ a ton I'm folding. If we Do check them a lot then I guess call and hate life

I like playing small bets here (at least nothing over half pot), don't think it's good when villain donk leads like this on a card that's good for our range

I think the board dynamic just gets worse for us a lot which is why I like small bets, and I think there's a lot of value to be had on the flop and turn still instead of being forced to play a b x b or b x x line with hands like KK. Our range is still super strong and we can go big if we get a clean run out by the river, so we get called more often on clean rivers against nittier players

I'm sorry but your completely wrong.
Board dynamics don't just get "worse" on 245r. B66 /B75 is perfectly reasonable size for this texture.
We have complete range advantage our AK AQ TT+ crush his range and we put him in a difficult spot with bigger bet.
When we bet big we wanna charge as much as possible the PP range 66-TT that stations a lot in that spot.

As played turn is grim fold i just don't see villian having too many bluffs there and honestly it feels like set 5s or 4s more than Ax.

There’s plenty of turn + rivers that make it hard to get value from 3 streets on.

The preferred line is blasting off B66 flop B75 turn jamming river with value, if we do this every time, even B66 flop check turn, it puts us in very polarizing and hard to play scenarios starting on turn (easy for our opponents) + hard to get value because population isn’t gonna call river jams as wide as the solver. That’s why I prefer just playing half or less at least at 100bb starting, also depending on who I’m playing with, etc. But I find this strat easiest and most convincing

They could overfold turn in the first example and start leading turns in the second one if we cbet our whole range wide on the flop for large sizes because we should check the turn a lot. Bluffing for 2 streets with two overs at full frequency isn’t optimal according to the perceived ranges. So you need to adjust

He has a very polarized range after this ace hit, hands KK should mix

KK should often be check otf betting is fine. Vs DB we have pure bluff catcher guess QQ and KK with club would be better calls than this.

No stats on HJ? IDK maybe his line is solver approved for all I know, but it seems like a rec move that doesn't scream strength. Could be a monkey stab with anything? I would call.

Yeah it’s solver approved

It’s interesting how people perceive this spot.

Some people think this a fish play and some people are folding Ax.

I agree with calling.

Seems like an important distinction between a solver approved line that regs are likely to know about and take vs one they are less likely to know about and take. If a reg is less likely to take the line, then we're more likely against a rec who could have anything.

I haven't looked at the spot in solver, so go easy on me if I'm wrong here. I guess in theory it makes sense that there are turn donks as OOP has plenty of Ax that calls flop with 2 overs+gutshot, and all the flopped overpairs are likely to check back IP. OOP probably has a lot of hands now that don't do well in the check call line, and IP probably has a lot of high card hands that don't do well vs a bet, but can get apply max pressure to 66-QQ, so I would guess some pocket pairs will be indifferent towards checking and betting.

OOP maybe can have KQs here, but 76, 87s will have folded pre a fair amount and raised flop some. 65s also makes some sense as it is +gutshot now and can block A5s. But it seems like OOP may need to turn some pocket pairs into bluffs by the river at least sometimes, 66 and 77 making the most sense. If we did end up with KQs on the turn, OOP it probably doesn't perform amazing in bet turn, bet river, since we block pocket pairs lower than A and have no equity vs an ace.

Okay I looked it up in the solver and my thoughts kind of look right. Neat spot. I am curious what your take on what exploitative adjustments IP and OOP can make vs recs and regs in this spot.

Yeah this spot is mental

So if we assume oop is a reg, the question is do they think we will have enough flop b60 folds left ott to bother bluffing.. You've got to think nope.. which makes this call more iffy. 25nl? jesus christ

It's a made up hand don't worry!

Yeah I think the bolded is correct.

It's always a problem when you don't know if the opponent is a fish or a reg but I think we should call vs both profiles.

1. If he is a regular and he is good enough to understand that turn is a donk spot--->it's going to be overbluffed. Regs love overbluffing in spots that are solver approved, my reasoning for this is because they like seeing the fruits of their labor and using solver approved lines with a bluff and getting the bluff through gives positive reinforcement for all the hours in the lab. You see this in so many solver approved lines like B-OB-Jam lines and Probe OB/OB lines etc. when you look at Reg MDA. We also know from MDA that regs under XR flops as 3BP OOP PFC so that means OOP will have more 66-JJ than theory.

2. If he is a fish, we know Fish over bluff in the XC-Donk-Bet line as 3BP OOP PFC so it's still a call with KK OTT but I'd fold river and hope he checks. Because the texture will be underbluffed even if the line is overbluffed so I'd actually be more worried about a fish betting river here than reg. In MDA, Texture always supercedes sizing (MDA principle) so we have to fold rivers vs a fish as it looks like we have Ax when we call turn.

I'd always fold KK as well vs a reg but I'd probably call a hand like AK at 100% frequency even though it is a 0EV bluff catcher. My reasoning would be the same reasoning as to why I call pure vs solver approved lines in SRPs. If they study the spot and understand why the turn is a donk, they are going to overbluff it OTR.

Can't believe you faked a hand doodoo. You'll never catch me stooping that level

I would probably always call the turn. Can have the best hand a lot, can draw to a chop, and can hit a K or face giveups on the river.

I know this is a fake hand, but I've been working on a tool that uses AI models to predict a players range and actions.

I'm curious to hear if the predictions line up with other people's intuition 😀

The top 5 hand combos in villains range after the donk lead the turn:

33: 6.1%
88: 4.6%
AKo: 4.6%
A3s: 3.2%
AQo: 2.9%

Not looking great for KK so far haha, but what about their general hand classes?

Villain is estimated to have top pair 19% of the time and two pair 13%!

They also have a straight 14% of the time and a set 7.5%.

So we are crushed by 53.5% of villains range!

But, you are being offered 4:1 pot odds on your call so you only need to win 25% of the time. My tool also predicts that villain will bet the river roughly 55% of the time (depends on exact river card), so there will be at least 45% of rivers that villain will check and you can showdown.

When villain does check the river, they will have 39% trash (high card) and 34% of the time will have a lower pair than yours.

So even if we always fold the river to any bet, then we will at least get to see a free showdown 45% of the time and we will win that showdown roughly 73% of the time.

So even with a river fold, we still will win the pot 33% of the time without putting any more money after our turn call. So overall, it is profitable to call the turn IMO.