Losing in NL5
UTG raises x9. Nit, 6% PFR I think.
150bb deep
I have 67s on the SB, call.
BB calls behind
flop is 233 two tone.
Check x3
Turn is a 5, I click half pot, UTG calls.
River is a Q, no flush. I bet 26 into a 66bb pot.
I had put him on:
- Lots of JJ, overraised to x9, standard raise was 3-4 on the table. (100% of 6 combos)
- A fair amount of KK (4 combos I guess?).
- less AA, would feel less pressure to overraise (2.5ish?)
- AK, I guess (12 combos?)
- AQ (same 12 combos - 3 from the river blocker)
- Some TT, might limp it or raise smaller (2 combos?)
- some combos of QQ I guess
Just in general there was an argument from symmetry, they lose to queen as often as they win. A half pot bet should be EV+, as even a pot bet would have been even money.
Except, that he called with the hand that should have folded the most. AK, that means that means he would have called with TT,JJ, and of course.
So I was just squarely hero called on NL5 gg.
(inb4 preflop call was kinda weak, and turn bet should have been smaller, I know, I know)
6 Replies
PS: Elo drops a lot after the 6th hour of gameplay. More small mistakes, and like chess, a single small mistake can cost a lot.
Give up river imo. Pretty bricky river card and AK seems like a decent bluff catcher for that sizing.
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Pre flop is losing so much not just kinda weak, huge ev punt
Preflop seems too loose w/ the 9x open & the fact villain has a pfr of ~6%.
Flop seems fine - your hand wants the pot as small as possible
Turn - sizing is too large. Either a smaller block bet or x again. Getting to see a cheap, or free, card with your hand is good.
River - the Q isn't great & with no flush you would have the option to bet large as a bluff (still would've been less bb in total) and would've been a realistic way to get money in if you called w/ a pp that hit or middling pair.
Lastly, my opinion, I don't see too many players at these stakes with the low pfr give up on their hands. Seem to be a bit sticky & call heavy, good thing when we hit, bad when we're bluffing, where notes come in.
Fold preflop.
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