What does Villain have here when he shoves this turn? Hero 4bet pot OOP
PokerStars - €0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Concettoilbello (BTN): 72.5 BB (VPIP: 83.78, PFR: 20.41, 3Bet Preflop: 1.72, Hands: 149)
savaddee (SB): 217 BB (VPIP: 19.08, PFR: 9.19, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 292)
stevebuso70 (BB): 134 BB (VPIP: 32.45, PFR: 16.95, 3Bet Preflop: 1.42, Hands: 419)
Vecissitude (UTG): 100 BB
FastEddy967 (MP): 199 BB (VPIP: 28.02, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 7.84, Hands: 188)
xebarpz4400 (CO): 21 BB (VPIP: 56.52, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
savaddee posts SB 0.5 BB, stevebuso70 posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Vecissitude has J♥ J♠
Vecissitude raises to 3 BB, FastEddy967 raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Vecissitude raises to 22 BB, FastEddy967 calls 12 BB
Flop: (45.5 BB, 2 players) Q♠ K♦ K♣
Vecissitude bets 10 BB, FastEddy967 calls 10 BB
Turn: (65.5 BB, 2 players) Q♦
Vecissitude checks, FastEddy967 bets 68 BB
He can't have AK, he should shove that pre, I block all KJs, one combo of KQs that I don't think he plays this way so I am stumped at what hand he plays this way. Only thing I can think of is TT or JJ that he is trying to bluff with. But even then I play pretty much every K I have this way so bluffing into me seems so reckless?
What do you guys do here?
3 Replies
AK does have some flats (not many) at equilibrium here, and the meta is much tighter than GTO at micro stakes for all 3bet nodes, especially vs UTG, so I wouldn't rule it out. JJ also mixes flat and 4bet, so vs this tighter range I don't mind flatting his 3bet.
I agree though it is strange with the value range having the board so locked up, and you having plenty of calls played this way. There is always the random spew factor vs the small bet and check, but its difficult to see what lands here and looks like a good bluff. I guess 99 unblocks TT/JJ.
In game I just fold without a read, I find 9 times out of 10 at micros, the fact that its is a tighter node and a difficult spot to bluff usually wins out over whether the hand makes sense.
I've been working on a tool that predicts a players range, and I ran your hand through to see 😀
The villains top 6 estimated hand combos are:
AKo: 10.3%
AQo: 9.6%
JJ: 9% (not accounting for your blockers)
AQs: 8.1%
AA: 4.6%
TT: 3.5%
You said that villain can't have AK, but my tool actually thinks they have AK about 13.5% of the time. You're right that from a GTO perspective they probably shouldn't have much AK, but in reality at those stakes they likely do.
On the turn, you are getting 34% pot odds. My tool estimates that your opponent will have nothing (just two pair on the board) about 21% of the time and they will have a pocket pair lower than jacks about 9% of the time.
So you could be ahead about 30% of the time, however there is still a river to come so your opponent could still have equity when you're ahead.
But when you're behind, you're pretty much crushed by a full house or better.
So overall, it is probably a good fold and would lose a decent amount of money as a call.
These are obviously just estimated probabilities, but hopefully you found that interesting 😀
A range of hands which all beat your hand.
Realistically he can have suited broadways, AK, AQ, QQ, KK all sorts of hands that may or may not continue as a call pre at this stake.
