Want to know villains range?

€0.10 NL FAST (6 max)

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 117 BB
Hero (BB): 103.7 BB
UTG: 110.6 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♠ Q♦

fold, fold, CO raises to 2.3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.3 BB

Flop: (5.1 BB, 2 players) K♣ 3♥ J♠
Hero checks, CO bets 1.6 BB, Hero calls 1.6 BB

Turn: (8.3 BB, 2 players) T♦
Hero checks, CO bets 11.8 BB, Hero calls 11.8 BB

River: (31.9 BB, 2 players) 2♠
Hero checks, CO bets 84.3 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 84.3 BB

This is an interesting hand, thanks for sharing! It's always cool to try and see what villain has when they jam for almost 3x pot lol!

So first I ran the hand through the model without any knowledge of your hand.

If we have no info on your hand, then villains top 5 hand combos are:

AQ: 32.1%
33: 5.2%
TT: 5.1%
JJ: 4.6%
KK: 4.5%

So the models estimate that villain has a straight or set 51.5% of the time haha! So a pretty strong range :P

However, we know that you have AQo, so you are actually blocking quite a few straights! I reran the hand to take these blockers into account, and with your hand then villains top 5 hand combos become:

AQ: 18%
33: 6%
TT: 5.9%
JJ: 5.3%
KK: 5.2%

Also, we can take a look at their hand classes in their range when we call.

They should have a set roughly 23% of the time, and a straight 22% of the time.

They will have trash (high card) 26.6% of the time and two pair about 11% of the time.

Obviously this is a call with the nut straight haha, but let's imagine we didn't have AQ and we had a weaker hand. We are getting roughly 2.5:6 pot odds which means we need to be winning 42% of the time.

They will have trash about 23.2% of the time if we don't block AQ, and they will have a single pair 7% of the time and two pair about 10% of the time.

So that means they have a set or better about 60% of the time! The only caveat is that this is no longer taking blockers into account, and if you have two pair then you will probably block enough of their sets and two pair that it might become profitable.

So I would definitely fold anything worse than two pair, and might even fold two pair if it doesn't block enough of their sets.

Hope you found that interesting! Curious to hear if that aligns with your thoughts or not 😀

I proposed the hand because you asked, in game I did not really think about their range because... not needed lol.

Yes in my NL10 pool I would fold almost everything on the river, this is a scary line villain took.

For the record:

CO shows A♣ 8♣ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 31%, Flop 18%, Turn 3%)
Hero shows A♠ Q♦ (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 69%, Flop 82%, Turn 97%)
Hero wins 190.5 BB

Interesting, thanks for sharing the outcome! It's funny that it happens to be high card since my tool predicted that as the highest likelihood hand class at 26.1% probability.

But I think a lot of people would have the instinct that villain is "never bluffing" here.

If you have any other hands you would like to see the results on, let me know 😀 I honestly believe the tool I've built is the most accurate player prediction model ever created before, even more accurate than any MDA or human could be.

I feel like this is never a set though. Like jam is pretty clearly polarising to the straight. Not even sure is it allowed. Like you have all the straights. S

Also the software not suggesting bluffs is a flaw. Like it's claiming this range is linear when it's clearly polar.

Why do you think the software is suggesting a linear range? I mentioned that it predicts a set or better 60% of the time, and a trash hand (high card) 23% of the time, and a single pair only 7% of the time.

That seems very polar to me, no?

I think you might be a little too overconfident in your read that it is either straight or trash. That's just not how rec players will tend to play these spots online at 10NL. Lots of recs will definitely have a set when they jam IMO. Also when you have AQ, you block many straights so they are even more likely to have a set.

I've tested the software on literally millions of hands that it has never seen before. In spots where it predicts a set 20% of the time, then I tend to see a set shown roughly 20% of the time. It is very well calibrated.

You also mentioned it didn't suggesting any bluffs but... the villain jammed on us? How can we bluff when villain jams on us. It's not like we can raise their jam :P

If you have any hands that you are curious about bluffing profitability, then you can share them and I can run it through the software. It will predict how often villain will fold to different sizes, and it can also predict what their range will be if they call.

I'm sorry if this comes off as argumentative, it just felt like you may have misunderstood what I wrote earlier 😀 I hope this helps to clarify! <3

You sneaky little git.