[100NL] Playing like GTO

1/2- pot is optimal OTT? In practise I think this overperforms. Like people have to raise straights vs this sizing OTT and river jam probably overcalled but idk if that's true cause he's also reasonably wide still. I think jam is clearly optimal if he has to always raise straights OTT but tbh vs this size and this deep I think it makes some sense for him to call some and develop a donk range on a bunch if rivers

Edit: Not sure this actually gets overcalls. He has to defend like 12% right. All your bluffs will be 0EV check-downs. Still maximises EV if not getting significantly overfolded though and it's not like you really have to protect your smaller sizes at these stakes

Yeah you should have multiple sizes here in theory

I thought in game that the small bet region % (75% or less) would be higher since the 2 is way better for the BB than for us

I ran this hand through some predictive models I've been working on that predicts player ranges and actions.

Surprisingly, it looks like this jam on the river could actually be a marginally profitable bluff which is crazy lol.

In order to be profitable with a bluff here, you would need them to fold river 87.73% of the time and my model predicts that villain will fold 88.71% of the time.

So this is a very marginal spot though and could easily go either way depending on whether you have any reads on villain.

When they do call your jam here, this is their top 5 predicted hand combos:

Q9: 16.5%
KQ: 5.5%
QJ: 4.9%
99: 3.5%
QT: 3.3%

They only have 5% straights when they call when considering your blockers and there are lots of hero calls with a single pair 42% of the time.

However, what if you chose a smaller size? For example, I re-ran the hand through my models and instead used a 16bb bet on the river.

Villain should be folding 50% of the time in GTO, but my model predicts villain will actually fold 65% of the time!

So if you had a trash hand that always loses showdown, it would be fairly profitable to bet 16bb but it would be roughly break-even if you jammed 113bb.

So because villain is overfolding significantly to smaller bets but is folding roughly correctly to the jam, then I think a jam is the most profitable play here against population without any reads 😀

Not sure this is good when BB can have all 65o, 65s, A5o, A5s preflop, and the only worse hand you might get called by is 99.