NL25 KK POST 4H

YES

Turn raise seems super mandatory. Pretty clearly a merged af range. River pretty uncomfortable. I'd call but wouldn't fault a fold

I'd raise the flop.

Seems close between calling or jamming the river.

Definitely a call IMO.

When SB bets pot on the river and you call, you only need to win roughly 33% of the time for it to be a profitable call.

I have a predictive model that estimates your equity is 69% with KK when you make the call, so folding would be a huge mistake.

Villain will have a worse two pair than you 28% of the time, and they will have a high card hand ~38% of the time! So you could call this with even 43s and it would still be profitable lol.

They will also have trips ~20% of the time and a full house 11% of the time, so it's not all sunshine and roses :P You will lose with a call sometimes.

But overall, calling probably has an EV of 30bb while folding has an EV of 0bb so folding would be a huge mistake.

What about jamming on the river? If you jam the river for 85bb, then villain will likely call ~65% of the time and you will have ~47% equity against their calling range.

So in that case, jamming on the river would give you an EV of roughly ~25bb if my math is correct. So in this case, the most profitable thing to do would be just call in this spot against average players. But either way, jamming or calling are both much better options than folding! You'd be losing at least 25bb in EV by folding.

These are of course just estimated probability from a predictive model, but I've found the predictions to be very accurate so hopefully that helps give some insights.