[MICRO] GTO agrees with this call, do you?

How is the 4s both in your hand and on the board

Oops, I messed up the suits trying to use the symbols.

Corrected version:

Hero (BTN) holds 5d 4d.

BTN (Hero) raises to 2.5 BB (3 BB total)
Frequency: 100%
EV: 0.03
SB 3-bets to 12 BB (11 BB more)
BB folds.
BTN (Hero) calls the 3-bet.
Frequency: 77.5%
EV: 0

Flop: (Kd 4s 2d)

Pot: 25 BB (23 BB effective)
SB bets 12.5 BB (11.4 BB effective)
BTN (Hero) calls with 5d 4d.
Frequency: 100%
EV: 28.76

Turn: Kd 4s 2d (Js)

Pot: 50 BB (45.8 BB effective)
SB bets 25 BB (22.6 BB effective)
BTN (Hero) calls with 5d 4d.
Frequency: 100%
EV: 23.11

River: Kd 4s 2d Js (9d)

Pot: 91 BB
SB goes all-in for 50.5 BB (55 BB total)
BTN (Hero) calls with 5d 4d.
Frequency: 100%
EV: 132.8

I don't think it's a good idea to make a call because you "don't want to be bluffed", that's generally not a great line of thinking to use in these spots.

However, with that said, I think it is a super super profitable call believe it or not.

I have a predictive model that can accurately predict a players range given how they played the hand.

When SB jams the river for 50bb and you call, you will likely have 89% equity with the 5-high flush! That means that calling gives you an EV of 128bb! Which is insane lol, it is rare to find a spot that is this profitable. Folding here would be a huge huge huge mistake.

When SB jams the river, the top 5 hand combos in their range are:

AK: 20.6%
KQ: 11%
AA: 10.3%
AQ: 7.1%
KJ: 6.3%

They will only have a flush roughly 11% of the time, and they will have a set 10%, two pair 9%, a straight 2%, and an overpair 10%. Oh, and they will have top pair 35% of the time.

They only have trash (high card) 14.5% of the time, so they are definitely not bluffing very often, but they are 'value' betting a lot of worse hands than a flush.

This is definitely always a call spot IMO. A lot of times people will think "villain is rarely bluffing here" which is true, but people often forget that rec players at low stakes are often betting hands they never should because they don't know what to do.

Although I will say that you probably should have folded preflop after SB 3bets. Most players are way too tight when they 3bet from SB, and you are only 100bb effective so the value of hands like 54s go way down in value, I think.

Hopefully that was interesting/insightful 😀

I mean we very clearly beat value. Like it's actually pretty crazy to even consider folding. BTN vs SB not even that hard to find bluffs. There's a bunch of offsuit combos with a diamond. AQd/ ATd. Like if we had a bluffcatcher it's probably fine to just fold although I think it's a bit of a stretch to get rid of say KQ with a diamond here tbh. Without a diamond would be a pretty good exploit fold probably.

Yes, I agree. That's why I believed it to be a very bad call. My biggest "leak" is essentially sometimes deviating from play not because of reads, but because of some sort of sunk cost fallacy where I cannot fold on a bad river card.

Thanks for the rest of your comment, that is some interesting stuff.

Same here, I think this is very common.

Small thing on preflop: I don't think 54s has to be a pure open from BTN, maybe the charts you use do not take into account the very high microstakes rake? Same thing when we do open, calling the 12BB 3-bet is a mix in theory but I am not sure your opponents 3bet what they should and maybe this makes it a fold. In general against people who 3bet not enough and too tight, you might want to pure open / pure fold to big 3bet.

I believe you played it well postflop.

Maybe you could raise flop even though it's not the correct theoretical play, it's possible your opponent folds everything which doesn't beat a K. If you get raised you are forced to get it in, most likely as an underdog, but with some equity still. In their shoes I would bet my entire range 1/3 pot on this flop (very good for the 3bettor, K kigh and BTN flops no 2 pair, very few sets) and be very unhappy with TT no diamond if BTN raise. Weaktight microstakes players like myself would probably overfold. But we don't have this read, and instead of 1/3 pot they used 1/2 pot, which is concerning.

The turn is interesting. I was thinking maybe we can fold because some of our outs are not that great (with a 5 we still don't beat KJ) and their line is very strong with the big 3bet and two big bets postflop. You could also go all-in!, and hope to get called by AdQd, AdTd, QdTd or fold things which have equity vs you (all hands basically), but I believe the board is too good for them.

Folding river would be a big mistake.

It's a clear call when such a big % of the flushes are blocked by the board, and you beat a ton of worse hands. SB can have zero bluffs and it's still a call.

You need to be good only 27% of the time, and flushes are not the only thing he's supposed to be value betting. Thinking about folding here when this is not even a bluffcatcher is horrendous.