nl30 payoff top two? lack aggression on flop?
i feel if i fast played this i could get away from paying.
should i be able to get away from this as played or is this just a cooler?
feel like ive been paying off a lot lately so checking anything im unsure about.
thanks in advance,
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.30(BB)
Dealt to Hero: Q♦ A♦
HERO Raises To $0.90, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls $0.90, SB Folds, BB Folds
Hero SPR on Flop: [20.48 effective]
Flop ($2.25): Q♣ 4♣ 2♠
HERO Bets $0.60 (Rem. Stack: $64.11), BTN Raises To $2.27 (Rem. Stack: $43.81), HERO Calls $1.67 (Rem. Stack: $62.44)
Turn ($6.79): Q♣ 4♣ 2♠ A♣
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $7.96 (Rem. Stack: $35.85), HERO Calls $7.96 (Rem. Stack: $54.48)
River ($22.71): Q♣ 4♣ 2♠ A♣ J♠
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $26.61 (Rem. Stack: $9.24), HERO Calls $26.61 (Rem. Stack: $27.87)
Spoiler
BTN shows: 9♣ T♣
BTN wins: $72.93
2 Replies
I've been working on a predictive model that predicts what players ranges are based on their actions and common player tendencies, etc.
I ran your hand through, and it looks like when you call the river bet, your hands equity is roughly ~32% equity against villains range here.
With the bet size, I think you need roughly 35% equity to make a break-even call, so I think this is a slightly losing call on the river.
The top 5 hand combos estimated for villains range are:
44: 16.4%
22: 11.8%
53: 3.3%
65: 3.3%
KT: 3.2%
Your villain will likely have a flush 34% of the time, and they will have a straight 4.3% of the time and a set 29% of the time!
They will also have trash (high card) roughly 11% of the time and will have a single pair ~12% of the time.
Overall, this is a very very strong range, and you are probably slightly losing money with a call with top two pair.
But if it makes you feel better, it's only roughly -7bb EV when you call, which could be worse :P
EDIT: Oh funny, I just looked at your spoiler results and saw what villain had, and my model predicted that as the 6th most likely hand combo at around 2.6% chance. Just for reference, I think you're supposed to hide the results until at least 24 hours after you post the hand 😀
I also think folding river is pretty mandatory vs most opponents. Think it's very optimistic to assume we beat value and obviously not enough bluffs on this node by the average villain. Like turn we cant fold but not that hard to imagine that there exist a **** ton of very -EV worlds
