[NL5 9max Deep Ante] Flush vs huge Riverdonk on paired Board
GG Poker - $0.05 Ante $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 188.8 BB
UTG+1: 228.8 BB
MP: 216 BB
Hero (CO): 222.2 BB
BTN: 206.2 BB
SB: 172.4 BB
BB: 236.8 BB
7 players post ante of 0.4 BB, SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 4.2 BB) Hero has 9♦ T♦
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, fold
Flop: (9.8 BB, 2 players) 8♦ J♣ 6♠
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: (9.8 BB, 2 players) J♦
SB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, SB calls 3 BB
River: (15.8 BB, 2 players) 5♦
SB bets 76.4 BB, Hero ?
Villain is a high VPIP low PFR fish. I have two hands from him:
1) UTG limp/call w/ 9s6x, checkdown on JT8sss22 w/ air
2) Call steal OOP w/ K7s, xx on JT9ssJ, then B100 on K w/ weak-ish TP
In the second hand he had a double gutshot and in the first hand a weak-ish combodraw. In both cases, he could have played more aggressively. In 1) he doesn't even find the bluff with air on the river. Villain seems to be passive overall with air/draws and more likely to find a thin valuebet (in 1, he only had a medium TP and every Q makes a straight).
You are very rarely confronted with such a huge overdonkbet. Looks a lot like value, especially considering the player profile. I'm beaten by Q high+ flushes (up to 18 combos in total) and weirdly played FHs (also around 18). Worse flushes 7 high- are limited (about 7). Otherwise, a straight 97 (12) or 74s (3) could be ballsy and bet for value. Trips would probably play differently before the river and would certainly attack my small turn bet directly.
How do you rate this spot?
4 Replies
I call, it is close though. Baby flushes are probably the top of my folding range here.
If we bet bigger turn, which i think we should, i would be more comfortable folding. As played, the villain's range is barely condensed so could be a lot of stuff that fish overvalues. Still, even for a fish its easy to see the flush is completed, and donk shove 4x is mostly not a bluff (unless the villain is an aggrofish, which by your post doesnt seem like that), so i think its mostly a flush or 55 rivering a boat or something. Not many flushes smaller than yours there.
Its close, but i probably fold. Wouldnt fault you for doing either.
I would go bigger on turn. Tons of equity and fold equity.
I doubt you are good on the river. These are nearly always nutted in general, especially from passive players.
I know flop cbet is optional in theory but with OESD and backdoor FD I would bet big on the flop: we can comfortably call a raise, we have a lot of equity, we are very happy if villain folds A2o and other trash they have in their range.
Painful fold for me on the river considering your description of this opponent.
