A8s in 3-bet pot versus flop check/raise on AQ8tt
PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 139.54 BB
CO: 293.67 BB
Hero (BTN): 236.93 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 171.03 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♥ A♥
fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5 BB
Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) A♠ 8♠ Q♥
CO checks, Hero bets 7.84 BB, CO raises to 29 BB, Hero calls 21.16 BB
Turn: (74.5 BB, 2 players) 9♠
CO bets 35.75 BB, Hero calls 35.75 BB
River: (146 BB, 2 players) T♥
CO bets 47.19 BB, ???
Should I have 3-bet the flop? Should I be folding the river or is that too nitty?
5 Replies
I think the opponent has a lot of draws on the flop so a raise from you should be ev+ here.
But I would fold on the turn as played because after check-raising on the flop this is a very bad card for you. And river I fold here in any case.
But I am only a Nl10 player. Maybe there are better analyses here.
I think it's a fold on the river.
We have a bluff catcher hand, but all draw from the flop have been closed and this line is underbuffed.
I Don't mind a fold on the turn.
I think the rather polarizing sizing on the turn, combined with player tendencies somewhat indicates that the CO villain is flush heavy.
(by "rather polarizing", i mean that i believe is a bigger sizing that GTO(b33) would choose. although I do think that b50 turn is completely fine, as the effective stack is deep)
a bigger flop sizing means that villain would have to incorporate more bluffs,
however, in the case of natural bluffs, all the flush draws have completed on the turn, with the exception of Suited Straight Draws.
the river completes the KJ straight and completes third pair with hands like KTs, which the villain will have to turn into bluffs to stay balanced at some extend theoretically, but not practically.
because of the preflop configurations hs should not really have that many offsuit combos with spade blockers if any at all, which would be "more natural" for humans to three barrel bluff.
My preference would be to call turn and fold river.
You can't 3bet flop. His 3bet sizing is so big he reps pretty much 2p+ and your hand is just a good bluff catcher.
Just fold turn.
I did end up folding the river, glad to know I'm not being too nitty by doing so.