Threshold for set mining vs fish/regs?
For sake of simplicity, assuming 5% rake 100bbs stacks for every player:
In a spot such as EP opens 2.5x, CO (fish) calls, BTN (Hero) calls with low pocket pair (88 and under), sb (reg) squeezes to X, BB fold, EP fold, CO calls,
What should be roughly the threshold for X for profitably set mining here, and should which pocket pair we hold matter? Not sure if there some reasonable mathematical approximation or heuristics we can use. (People commonly say need implied odds need to be 10:1 at least but this doesn't seem quite grounded enough since EV depends on other factors as well)
4 Replies
I would say it depends on how tight the squeezer is (the tighter the better so we can cooler overpairs) and how big of a fish the fish is.
The size of the PP does matter a little bit, as we will occasionally have a set over set vs the fish, but that is rare.
If I had to answer:
Size 10 or below: always calling
Size 10-15: act in occordance with above factors
15+ fold
If I had to answer:
Size 10 or below: always calling
Size 10-15: act in occordance with above factors
15+ fold
Can you talk a little more about what the Sizes mean? You aren't describing implied odds, are you?
OP: I'm folding unless we are getting at least 15:1. Go back through your database and filter for these spots.
Being multiway can be both a blessing and a curse because your implied odds increase while your fold equity also decreases. I need to have position and reads in order to break that 15:1 rule.
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Can you talk a little more about what the Sizes mean? You aren't describing implied odds, are you?
OP: I'm folding unless we are getting at least 15:1. Go back through your database and filter for these spots.
Being multiway can be both a blessing and a curse because your implied odds increase while your fold equity also decreases. I need to have position and reads in order to break that 15:1 rule.
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Think he is talking about squeeze size in BBs
1/10thish of effective stacks or somethjng. 77 also isn't 33 at all.
Implied odds are obv not only how often you'll hit and win stacks with a set. A ton of other factors are "implied".
The reg is forced to play very straight up and check a lot, so are you when he bets.
In position vs a weak passive fish you could call with a napkin and a MTG card, and still show a profit. Vs a really aggro fish 77/88 often become bluffcatchers vs certain lines/runouts.
