NL10 - IP vs 3bp xc/xc/donk jam
PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 178.9 BB
BB: 117.8 BB
UTG: 116.4 BB
Hero (MP): 196 BB
CO: 107.5 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♣ K♣
UTG raises to 2.4 BB, Hero raises to 7.4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 5 BB
Flop: (16.3 BB, 2 players) 8♠ 2♥ 4♣
UTG checks, Hero bets 11.7 BB, UTG calls 11.7 BB
Turn: (39.7 BB, 2 players) K♦
UTG checks, Hero bets 28.4 BB, UTG calls 28.4 BB
River: (96.5 BB, 2 players) J♣
UTG bets 68.9 BB and is all-in, Hero ?
With this runout I have a hard time thinking of enough hands UTG would have a tendency to lead as a bluff here. I think most of his range is just going to be pocket pairs which he is more likely just wanting to see showdown with, the only unmade hands which he might make this play with I think could get here with his 65s 76s and maybe A5s too? Overwhemingly I think this would be a micros player jamming the in fear river goes x/x.
Any guidance on micros tendencies in this line?
5 Replies
The non-broken stack and the 2.4BB open indicate some sort of reg, or at least until they open shove the river they don't seem to be a recreational.
There is no draw except A5, A3, and A3 should fold preflop + do they really call turn with a bare gutshot?
They called two big bets on flop and turn, even though the Kd ont the turn is (one of) the best card(s) in the deck for your range.
They don't shove worse for value
-> I vote fold
I don't expect to see many sets of 2 or 4. Can see 88, JJ, AK showing up here pretty often. I don't see KJ calling flop that often but it's not impossible. What I have for donks is typically value orientated, in this spot probably 2p+ so I would lean towards fold
I have seen bluffs in this spot too however, so without reads probably folding should be okay and if you did have reads I would lean on them if you are confident
Thanks for the help - glad we have a similar conclusion. Only had 10 hands on this player so couldn't make any reads against them in particular unfortunately. I agree didn't see KJ calling 75% otf often too. Thanks for pointing out AK being in the range, tbh I didn't consider that at all since I thought he would 3b that pre, but makes sense since it's HJ vs UTG 3bp.
Thanks for the help - glad we have a similar conclusion. Only had 10 hands on this player so couldn't make any reads against them in particular unfortunately. I agree didn't see KJ calling 75% otf often too. Thanks for pointing out AK being in the range, tbh I didn't consider that at all since I thought he would 3b that pre, but makes sense since it's HJ vs UTG 3bp.
Yes, AK is not always a 4bet preflop in theory and I think in practice at microstakes it is even more tempting to flat as HJ's 3bet range might not be what it is supposed to be. And of course it can't flat just to fold on any non-A non-K flop, so it has to make uncomfortable calls on the flop, hunting for an A or a K (+ it has showdown value) : you are supposed to cbet flop very agressively even with broadways like AQ, KQ so if you both hit on the turn or the river they reverse you a lot.
The river is a fold where I play. There are exceptions like 4 to flush on the board but I can't see any of those here.
