Check/raising river over an overbet as a bluff
PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 127.73 BB
Hero (CO): 177.6 BB
BTN: 103.88 BB
SB: 122.47 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♣ J♠
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) T♥ Q♠ 3♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 2.14 BB, Hero calls 2.14 BB
Turn: (11.78 BB, 2 players) J♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 7.84 BB, Hero calls 7.84 BB
River: (27.45 BB, 2 players) Q♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 39.12 BB, Hero raises to 164.62 BB and is all-in
Good bluff or spew?
3 Replies
I would probably donk turn at a decent frequency, good in theory and probably over realises as under studied by population.
Ap did you rng for river? If not seems like we would be way over bluffing with how much JT we would arrive here with but probably okay at some low frequency but think I would mainly just call/fold Vs ob
Didn't look at a solve, but according to FE calcs, villain needs to fold 44% of the time to breakeven.
Intuitively I'm not sure people are folding that often after they OB river unless they are overbluffing in the first place. In which case, I'd imagine calling outperforms.
I guess you figured he overbet the river because you would have raised the turn with the nuts and you are repping QJ and JJ sort of, but when he overbets i believe he has QT, QQ etc. Do you have any reason to think he would show up with air here as an overbet? He looks like he just has the nuts here, but yo maybe bluff the turn instead if you think he's not gonna jam on you if you think this is the right play (as in check raise turn and bet blank river).
