Limped pot vs 78/11

fold. Turn x/minraise is super strong, and the river makes it even stronger. Whale has all 53o and 53s and probably all sets at some frequency incl. AA. Could also have A9.

Yeah sets and st8 have all, AA I dont think it and A9 I think that dont raise turn. He have many worst two pair imo OTT but I dont know if he pot River (because was passive)

Call. U beat some value

This is super nutted line so you should never bluff catch. Problem here is we might beat some value. Without info i dont hate calling or folding. Some fish will xr hands like KK weak 2p ott if you have that info i would just 3bet turn and play for stacks

Just iso vs. limp with basically everything. As played call seems fine, fold is a bit too much and jam is too thin.

Fold, even thoug he may have a semi random hand, in the long run isnt a + ev call here

Why?

I call it, he have 53o but seems fine my line

Here is a zone alias (much tighter limp from SB compared to reg tables)

Limp stats from SB:

and then postflop after they limp/call pre, this is how often they fold to any bet on each street (no other filters)

compared to postflop where they limp pre + call a bet --> slightly lower folding frequencies, but the pot is bigger

Because they limp/raise so little and then tend to fold quite a lot post flop even when they do call with relatively low aggression, you're incentivized to just iso pretty wide.

Running a very much not-so-perfect node-locked preflop sim for SB range, BB iso's here ~60%:

EV difference between iso/check:

I'd argue you're probably better off just bloating the pot and winning more in the postflop node where the pot is bigger, but you could certainly argue just checking behind with the bottom ~1/3rd of hands is reasonable.

When you put all fish in one alias you usually get how average tight fish plays something vpip40 or so. Two reasons for this: there is more 40vipip fishes then vipi80 and they lose much slower so they end up being over represented. Most high vipp fish fold close to 0 vs iso imo.

Postflop over fold benefits us when we miss, but hurts us when we have something. It probably net adds EV but its not some huge boost.

It was not a fish alias. It was just zone alias when someone limped, so it includes regs/40vpip/80vpip, etc. Probably 90% of my hands for this alias were 200z/500z. I don't have an alias for reg tables, but I'd say it'd be wider limps and therefore a bit more limp-fold compared to zone (anecdotal). Do you have any data in your database for limp-fold, limp-raise values and for what stakes?

I'm also not sure if you're arguing for or against me stating to iso very wide, but your thoughts are more than welcome.

I have a stat in my HUD for limp/fold, so if i see even one limp/fold i would open up iso range a lot but staring point would be much more conservative.

In my DB average fish limp/folds in this spot 36, High vipp 27.

Average fish-all players with vipp 40+
High vipp- all with vipp 68+

Mostly nl100/200 reg tables, but fish play more or less the same on every stake.

It's the distinctive lack of limp-raise that makes you want to iso more, rather than the overall folding frequency (though that obviously contributes to it).