NL10 - Top set facing a check/shove on the turn

I think I should go a little bit bigger on the flop. 0.65-0.75$

I agree with Slasher, although in this case think you would end up in the same situation on turn.

Assuming no info on villain, clear fold for me and tag him as a fish

Not folding top set to fish on this board. If he has JT, so be it, we have outs.

Lol @ considering folding. I am confused.. so you are only going to call the pure nuts here?

We need 40% and we are getting like 22% to improve.

He doesn't need to have many bluffs or worse value hands for us to break even. Is K9 not possible? Q9? Perhaps 99? 66 sometimes? 9dTd? 78dd?

Turn clear call

Flop depends what kind of players they are in general this is too big for top set and you shouldn't bet big sizing in mw too often. I would also bet smaller ott you want to keep Qx in, and most regs will fold that to this size.

My reason for calling was that villain might have twopairs or turned set 99. I had a feeling that villain was somewhat passive and only raised with good hands. But yeh still cant fold top set even with that info.

I just wanted to doublecheck if my reasoning was okay or do I call too loosely in these situations.

Good to hear that call in this situation is "standard"

And yeah villain had JT... 😮

Yeah sounds reasonable. I thought this too

Can he really have 99?

Good question. When I think it again, most of the time 99 folds on this flop. Especially when a player is passive

I wouldn't rule it out completely after just 1 cbet

Do you have an equity calculator you like? I'd use that more in spots like this than a solver, that way you can lock in realistic ranges easier. It's going to be difficult to find a range where you have < 50% equity w/ top set.

I do have equilab and pokerstove.

I gave Villain a range of: QQ,66,KQs,K9s,JTs,KQo,JTo

Against this range KK has 49,9% equity

So I guess it is a coinflip.

Interesting. If I remove JTo but keep JTs, then my equity goes to 75%

K9s isn't possible cos of blockers, but if we're saying he flats JTo pre maybe he flats K9o as well. This one is a bit closer than if it was a 40+VPIP guy but as a general rule I don't fold top set to a fishy looking player because they do way too much weird **** that makes no sense lol.. You don't need many combos for this to be breaking even/+EV even if you give him every combo of JT, and if you're doing that you need to give him lots of other stuff.. Could even be a big draw sometimes AdJd, 9Tdd etc

Never ever folding when K9 and Q9 are in their range.

It's pretty much a fistpump call.

Sounds good Gentlemen

Ok, good... ya, I just punched it in, and I'd give him this range, which is probably a little conservative.

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[code]
Equity Win Tie Hand Range

50.5051% 50.5051% 0% [ KcKs ]

49.4949% 49.4949% 0% [ ADJD(100), ADTD(100), AD9D(100), KQs(100), KQo(100), JTs(100), JTo(100), TD9D(100), 66(100),K9s(50), 9C9S(50), 9D9S(50), 9H9S(50) ]

[/code]

So, pretty easy call. Sucks when they have it though. 😉