NL10 - Top set facing a check/shove on the turn

NL10 - Top set facing a check/shove on the turn

Villain: 29/3, hands: 221

Questions:

1) Can I ever fold this? Are there enough of worse hands to call or is this always JT?
2) Was my bet sizing okay on the turn or should I bet smaller?

SB: $17.28 (172.8 bb)
BB: $11.07 (110.7 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $10 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $12.27 (122.7 bb)
MP1: $9.11 (91.1 bb)
MP2: $10.95 (109.5 bb)
MP3: $10 (100 bb)
CO: $10.46 (104.6 bb)
BTN: $10.59 (105.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K


K


Hero raises to $0.25, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 4 folds, SB calls $0.20, BB folds

Flop: ($0.85) 6


K


Q


(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.55, MP1 folds, SB calls $0.55

Turn: ($1.95) 9


(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.45, SB raises to $16.48 and is all-in, Hero?

25 September 2024 at 11:03 AM
Reply...

19 Replies



I think I should go a little bit bigger on the flop. 0.65-0.75$


I agree with Slasher, although in this case think you would end up in the same situation on turn.

Assuming no info on villain, clear fold for me and tag him as a fish


Not folding top set to fish on this board. If he has JT, so be it, we have outs.


Lol @ considering folding. I am confused.. so you are only going to call the pure nuts here?


We need 40% and we are getting like 22% to improve.

He doesn't need to have many bluffs or worse value hands for us to break even. Is K9 not possible? Q9? Perhaps 99? 66 sometimes? 9dTd? 78dd?


Turn clear call

Flop depends what kind of players they are in general this is too big for top set and you shouldn't bet big sizing in mw too often. I would also bet smaller ott you want to keep Qx in, and most regs will fold that to this size.


My reason for calling was that villain might have twopairs or turned set 99. I had a feeling that villain was somewhat passive and only raised with good hands. But yeh still cant fold top set even with that info.

I just wanted to doublecheck if my reasoning was okay or do I call too loosely in these situations.

Good to hear that call in this situation is "standard"

And yeah villain had JT... 😮


by _doc_ k

We need 40% and we are getting like 22% to improve.

He doesn't need to have many bluffs or worse value hands for us to break even. Is K9 not possible? Q9? Perhaps 99? 66 sometimes? 9dTd? 78dd?

Yeah sounds reasonable. I thought this too


by Slasher- k

My reason for calling was that villain might have twopairs or turned set 99. I had a feeling that villain was somewhat passive and only raised with good hands. But yeh still cant fold top set even with that info.

I just wanted to doublecheck if my reasoning was okay or do I call too loosely in these situations.

Good to hear that call in this situation is "standard"

And yeah villain had JT... 😮

Can he really have 99?


by Haizemberg93 k

Can he really have 99?

Good question. When I think it again, most of the time 99 folds on this flop. Especially when a player is passive


I wouldn't rule it out completely after just 1 cbet


Do you have an equity calculator you like? I'd use that more in spots like this than a solver, that way you can lock in realistic ranges easier. It's going to be difficult to find a range where you have < 50% equity w/ top set.


by FreakDaddy k

Do you have an equity calculator you like? I'd use that more in spots like this than a solver, that way you can lock in realistic ranges easier. It's going to be difficult to find a range where you have < 50% equity w/ top set.

I do have equilab and pokerstove.

I gave Villain a range of: QQ,66,KQs,K9s,JTs,KQo,JTo

Against this range KK has 49,9% equity

So I guess it is a coinflip.

Interesting. If I remove JTo but keep JTs, then my equity goes to 75%


K9s isn't possible cos of blockers, but if we're saying he flats JTo pre maybe he flats K9o as well. This one is a bit closer than if it was a 40+VPIP guy but as a general rule I don't fold top set to a fishy looking player because they do way too much weird **** that makes no sense lol.. You don't need many combos for this to be breaking even/+EV even if you give him every combo of JT, and if you're doing that you need to give him lots of other stuff.. Could even be a big draw sometimes AdJd, 9Tdd etc


Never ever folding when K9 and Q9 are in their range.


It's pretty much a fistpump call.


by andymc1 k

K9s isn't possible cos of blockers, but if we're saying he flats JTo pre maybe he flats K9o as well. This one is a bit closer than if it was a 40+VPIP guy but as a general rule I don't fold top set to a fishy looking player because they do way too much weird **** that makes no sense lol.. You don't need many combos for this to be breaking even/+EV even if you give him every combo of JT, and if you're doing that you need to give him lots of other stuff.. Could even be a big draw sometimes AdJd,

by boulgakov k

Never ever folding when K9 and Q9 are in their range.

by AskZandar k

It's pretty much a fistpump call.

Sounds good Gentlemen


by Slasher- k

I do have equilab and pokerstove.

I gave Villain a range of: QQ,66,KQs,K9s,JTs,KQo,JTo

Against this range KK has 49,9% equity

So I guess it is a coinflip.

Interesting. If I remove JTo but keep JTs, then my equity goes to 75%

Ok, good... ya, I just punched it in, and I'd give him this range, which is probably a little conservative.

This hand driven to you directly from DriveHUD 2


Board: 6c Kd Qd 9h Xx

[code]
Equity Win Tie Hand Range

50.5051% 50.5051% 0% [ KcKs ]

49.4949% 49.4949% 0% [ ADJD(100), ADTD(100), AD9D(100), KQs(100), KQo(100), JTs(100), JTo(100), TD9D(100), 66(100),K9s(50), 9C9S(50), 9D9S(50), 9H9S(50) ]

[/code]

So, pretty easy call. Sucks when they have it though. 😉


★ Recommended Post
by FreakDaddy k

Ok, good... ya, I just punched it in, and I'd give him this range, which is probably a little conservative.

So, pretty easy call. Sucks when they have it though. 😉

Thanks for your help Mr Freak Daddy. I will grind on in your honour. And yes it sucked hard 😊

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