Playing overpairs on J-high mid/low-connected runouts
I have 2 hand histories to share from online 10NL 6-max cash game. These spots were strikingly similar in terms of board texture, but quite different in terms of player type & action. I'm curious to see how others would have played these spots.
HH-1:
UTG is a typical 10NL nit that just joined the table and checks his entry bet
Folds to CO with QcQh, distracted playing multiple tables, who opens to 2.3bb
Folds to UTG who calls
Flop - Js 4c 3h
x - b50 - c
Turn - 5s
x - b130 - min r - c
River - 6d
b100 (ai) - f
-------
HH-2:
BU is probably a fish playing with 65bb in cash, but no other evidence on his competency
Folds to BU, who opens 3.5bb
SB 3bets to 12bb with QdQs
Folds to BU, who calls
Flop - Jh 6c 3d
b50 - c
Turn - 7s
x - b80 (ai) - c
2 Replies
H1 I don't think this is an overbet on the turn, it's a much better card for them, you don't have spades, etc etc. If villain is a "nit" then I think you can fold when they minraise your overbet. Sure they could have a draw but this is not their typical play, it's a hand that crushes you too often.
H2 no brainer, you stack a J every time
Vs. weaker opponents who won't find enough calls and raises (which is pretty much every reg at 10nl) We can just approach these J high dry textures as range bets. If it gets more connected and villain very often has pairs/draws we should shift towards a polar strategy with big bet or check (especially in 3bp OOP)
First hand yeah, shouldn't be an overbet on turn. It brings OOP some Two pairs, straights, our overpairs are quite devalued. We can xb this hand sometimes or if we bet I'd go 75% or so. Vs click raise I'd just fold. It's so unlikely he'll find a bluff here vs an overbet barrel. Especially if it's a nitty villain, call probably burns money.
Second hand - I'd mostly just barrel myself OTT, especially with QQ which do need some protection. Unless you have reads that the guy is a maniac I don't see much point in checking turn
