Casual 150b turn x/shove from mr 88.17bb/100

What do you accomplish with turn play?

Anxiety relief

Think QQ/JJ always call here? idk. I think i'd fold

b50 seemed like scared money on this runout but could be wrong

ok think of it like this:

When he calls large squeeze v is totally capped. AA/KK nearly always 5b.

A confident QQ/JJ that wants to end the hand will raise flop, but villain calls. Double capped. So he has, at best, a non-confident QQ/JJ combo that isn't comfortable gii. We have a vulnerable OESFD that hates many rivers but conversely has good equity vs his call range.

So what is the better play than pushing that equity into a strong line on a scary board? I like it more than i did at the time now tbh.

Seems punty, just cbet yourself smallish or xc down.

Just got a message from my pal, GTOWIZARD. He say: ‘bro, yo, you can get away with this at some non zero frequency. IP gota fold QQ/JJ and call FDs… shhhhh’

oop


ip

I think probably good vs this size. Like it's got to be just +EV with this much equity so better than fold and I feel villain will have way too much marginal hands/ draws in this range so probably raise outperforms call. Or at least if it doesn't maximize EV it punishes poor range construction. I actually really like a smaller raise size over jamming though

I've been working on a tool that predicts a players range based on how they played the hand. I ran your hand through and thought I'd share the predictions.

The top 5 hand combos in villains range after they call the turn jam:

KK: 6.1%
AKo: 5.8%
QQ: 4.7%
JJ: 4.1%
99: 3.6%

But the question is, was TT a good jam for value on the turn? To determine this, we need to see if we have at least 50% equity when villain calls.

My tool estimates that villain will have an overpair higher than yours 18% of the time. They will have a set 10% of the time and two pair 5%, and a straight 5% of the time. They will also have a flush 20% of the time.

So when you jam turn and they call, they will be ahead of you roughly 58% of the time.

Now, just because they are ahead of you doesn't mean you have zero equity. But the same is true for villain when they are behind, they will have equity with overcards, better flush draws, etc.

So overall, I think this might be too thin to jam for value against this opponent since you probably have less than 50% equity when they call.

It's also not a profitable bluff spot, because they are only folding to your jam 30% of the time while you would want them to fold at least 57% of the time.

Probably not a good spot to shove with TT. It is likely more profitable to call or raise smaller so you get weaker hands to call your value raise.

These are obviously just estimated probabilities, but hopefully you found it interesting 😀

Yes interesting. But it's definitely a bluff. Well... from my PoV, the hands we're targeting are slightly ahead. Like every range v range most non-nut combos creep into both categories ultimately

Not sure I agree with these ratios tho:

I would put much greater relative % to QQ/JJ/99. I don't think he calls or plays AKo like this very often and most KK will 4b pre or raise flop

Trouble with raising small is we give him too good a price on his draws and hands that are ahead. We'd also have to call his 3b but now we're behind

Flop should probably be small or check and the turn is probably just a fold. This is a horrible board for you.

I understand your logic and see where you're coming from. I'm not saying that it is guaranteed to be correct, though I've tested my tool on many many many hands and it tends to be well calibrated.

So on 100 spots that my tool predict KK has 6% probability, I tend to see KK shown in about 6 out of 100 hands.

But that doesn't mean it is always correct, and it's definitely possible that it could be wrong 😀

My interpretation for why KK is higher likelihood than QQ/JJ is probably because those hands are more likely to raise the flop, while KK might feel safer with a call on the flop (less overcards).

That doesn't necessarily mean that KK is more likely in their range after preflop action. It's quite possible that they have QQ/JJ twice as often on the flop, but because they would raise more often on flop then they might end up on the turn with a higher proportion of KK if that makes sense.

The reason 99 is lower probability is probably for all the same reasons. Rec players are more likely to raise 99 than KK because there are so many overcards, and then there is the 9 on the turn which blocks a lot of 99 combos too, driving their likelihood even further down.

Just wanted to give my intuition on why I think it made these predictions, but also it's not a perfect system so it's totally possible that you are correct here.

But I'm surprised you called this a bluff jam. I'm not sure there are many hands better than yours that will fold. Lots of rec players will call QQ even without a club, and they will have a club 50% of the time. Same with JJ, and that doesn't even account for the gutshot too which will make rec players want to call even more.

Just my 2 cents, but a super interesting hand! Thanks for sharing

Appreciate input Z but I think fold is way too far. I know we're not at the top of our range but the idea fish don't bluff here seems very unlikely. As you say, the board looks horrible

If he goes b66+ or something a bit more threatening I start to lean your way but call flop b50 doesn't scream uber strength imo. Especially when we start to draw the ranges out into realistic calling station ranges which I haven't done yet.

Seems bit of a projection. For sure they will sometimes. And maybe in a 100bb pot you are correct, but approaching 200bb I think if anything people are doubling up on caution and f.e.a.r.

If they have those hands they were already bricking it preflop when they knew they had to make a choice between look weak and call or go for some kind of nervy 4b. They chose weakness. Why? Because we can have them crushed and they know it. Exact same logic applies on the flop. Their worst fears are realised and we look thirsty with a big cbet. If you're a fish and your stack is important to you these things matter in a way they won't to regs thinking about ranges.

I think I would expect QQ to call if they bet small or if they bet big, weirdly enough. But b50 seems more, idk, petrified to me, like they can't decide what they want to convey but they know it might be their last chance to apply pressure. I am open to the idea this is too aggro but I haven't run any locks or fish ranges through a solver yet and I'm reasonably confident it will make this play even more flattering for hero. 😀

edit: I think you're right that the whole thing will boil down to range construction for villain, because we're probably way off the map playing deep as per

A fish has:

44, 77, 88, 99 at high frequency
97s, 98s, 87s high frequency
65s high frequency
JTs high frequency
T6s low frequency
almost all possible flush combos high frequency
JJ-AA with at least some frequency

Best case is he has some kind of higher club, 2 overs+club, pair+over, or pair+draw, and those are all going to x back a decent amount or might not call a jam. You're basically bluffing here 183bb deep because there's no way this is for value.

I am 100% committed to the concept this is a bluff. I just think it's easy to pick nut combos out of an overstretched fish calling range.

For me 9/10 of those hands would choose a different sizing. Either smaller to induce (i think this is mostly preferred by fish in these spots. they'll bet thin for scared value then call it off), or big because they 'want the monies lol'. For me it's really all in that sizing, which is kind of a psychology question although if anyone has any contrary data as ever pls go ahead... my hunch is the node locking will swing in my direction because this is just not a natural size for v if their intention is to disguise their range