nl50 OP that beats the board
PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.25/$0.50 - 5 players
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UTG: $52.29 (105 bb)
CO: $55.02 (110 bb)
BU: $76.93 (154 bb)
SB: $33.93 (68 bb)
BB (Hero): $50.00 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with T♥ T♣
1 fold, CO raises to $1.10, 1 fold, SB calls $0.85, Hero 3-bets to $6, CO calls $4.90, 1 fold
Flop: ($13.10) 2♥ 9♠ 5♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO calls $4
Turn: ($21.10) 6♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $15, CO raises to $45.02 (all-in), BB (Hero) folds
Total pot: $51.10 (Rake: $2.81)
CO wins $48.29
he has all the sets and straights, i'm only ahead overcards with clubs i think.
is everyone folding here?
thanks
5 Replies
yep i'd muck this one. we've shown moreorless absolute strength and he say 'bruh give me all your $$$'
I'd probably polarise a bit more on the flop and bet b50
I don't think we can fold here. I have an accurate predictive model and ran this hand through it.
When villain jams on us on the river, we need to call 50bb to win 202bb.
So we only need to win roughly 25% of the time for it to be a profitable call.
With pocket tens, my model predicts you actually have 38% equity on blank rivers so more than enough to make a profitable call.
Villain will have trash high card (flush draws and straight draws) about 19% of the time, and they will have a lower pocket pair than yours 9% of the time, and they will have a single pair on the board 10% of the time.
Some of these are semi-bluffs, and some of these are over-valued top pairs, and some of these are spazz jams from a player that doesn't know what to do.
All of these add up and make it a profitable call even if it's gross. It's never fun to make a call that is losing 62% of the time, but it is profitable IMO.
If you're curious, these are the top hands in villains range:
QQ: 15.4%
JJ: 14.3%
KK: 8.1%
99: 6.7%
AA: 5.8%
88: 4.5%
AK: 3.8%
This is why pot odds are very important on river call decisions like this IMO.
Hmm. Interesting, but AK over 55 and 66?
Who is inputting the ranges for this spot? A human or the algo? And is that range based on what it can predict preflop, or does it retrofit somehow depending on the action of the hand?
It is a difficult spot to have bluffs, especially as you block the some of the likely club backdoors (QT/JT/AT) + shoving over a large turn bet is so under bluffed in general. A3/A4/KQ/KJ/KQ would make sense, though I doubt they get shoved pure.
Value wise it is player dependent but 43s doesn't always open here, and some of the other sets/straights are folds/mixes at equilibrium - Though I would imagine though with the fish flatting behind they would have most of them.
I wouldn't say its a fold vs everyone - there are some more aggro reg and fish profiles I would get it in against. Vs an unknown in the 50nl pool I think its a good fold
Hmm. Interesting, but AK over 55 and 66?
Who is inputting the ranges for this spot? A human or the algo? And is that range based on what it can predict preflop, or does it retrofit somehow depending on the action of the hand?
AK over 55 and 66 is not too surprising. There are 16 combos of AK and there are only 3 combos of 55 and 3 combos of 66. Also AK is only 0.5% more likely than 55 even though it has many more combos.
In terms of villains range, 55 is their #9th most common hand at 3.4% and 66 is their #10th most common hand at 2.9%.
The ranges are all predicted by a large model that has learned how to accurately predict player ranges & actions. The range that it predicts is based on all of the the information about the hand that it has available.
It takes into account preflop actions, stack sizes, raise sizes, calls, postflop actions, the flop and board runout, etc. I've tested it on many hands, and when it predicts that villain will have a flush 12% of the time, then I usually see that they indeed have a flush 12% of the time.
