Extracting EV with KK when deep without getting minced

cbet flop

I have sent a clone back through time to cbet flop (not a cbet btw). Trouble is now this thread is going to disappear

I’d bet flop because if he has AA you are losing regardless.

We need to get value from TT-QQ and start extracting from AK.

Jam preflop though.

As played you could get cute and do a minraise OTR, jamming is too thin.

I personally think you should probably jam preflop, but given how it was played to the river, I was curious whether we should call or raise?

When you call the river, my model predicts villain will have a high card bluff 20% of the time (for example AK is 13% and that's with you blocking two kings!).

They will also have an underpair ~9.5% of the time.

Overall, when you call river with KK, your equity should be ~63%.

The top hand combos in villains range are:

AQ: 22.7%
AA: 22.6%
AK: 13.3%
QQ: 10.4%
JJ: 6.5%
KQ: 4.8%

So villain should have one of those hands (if you call) roughly 80% of the time!

While 63% is great equity, I agree that it's probably too thin to jam. If you were to min-raise river, you will get ~48% calls and ~17% re-raise jams.

When he re-raise jams on you, your equity is only ~29% if you call which is actually a break-even 0EV bluff catcher at that point against villains jamming range.

Overall, I think it's probably best to just call on the river given how it was played, though if we could go back in time then maybe jams KK because my model predicts that villain would have called ~70% of the time, and when they do call your jam preflop then you would have ~60% equity.

So the EV of jamming against a population preflop with KK would have been +96.5bb in EV. I don't think that calling preflop with KK has an EV greater than that, so I would just jam.

I'd jam pre and would cbet the flop. idk about the river. It looks a lot like AQ/JJ but a lot of fish don't 4b those at all, esp for a bigger size.

What's the EV of jamming pre this deep w/ KK? I like flatting personally w/ position.

Bet flop.
I get what you were going for, but I'd just bet the turn normal.
You're probably looking at AK/JJ/TT at this point. Given as such, I'd raise the river to 60 and fold to a shove. The great thing about fish is you can make an exploit fold as they will almost never jam the river deep as a bluff.

It depends.

If you are playing GTO ranges against another GTO player, then the solver seems to think that jamming KK has an EV of +40bb.

However, that is assuming that villain has GTO 4bet range and assumes they will call 42% of the time with QQ+ and AK.

However at low stakes, my model predicts that villain will actually called 70% of the time and will have a much weaker range than QQ+!

So GTO solutions would say jamming KK has an EV of +40bb, but my predictive model estimates that jamming KK actually has an EV of +95bb.

So personally, I think you jam KK regardless of whether you are playing GTO or exploiting population. Unless you have a very specific read on the player that they are a maniac that will shovel money in postflop anyways.

Just my thoughts though 😀

180 BBs deep? Doesn't seem right. 100bbs, I can see them way over calling of course. Maybe at 5NL and below, I could see that as a possibility. But data I've looked at in the past over 150bbs, the ranges got tighter, not looser. This was several years ago that I looked at this, but still, things haven't changed that much.

I think this is another one of those, how do you define a fish situations. The classically defined loose/passive fish is going to over fold here. Only whales and gamblers are going to call wider, but why risk that? You're much better off just 5-betting in that case and making sure you're not pushing out hands that you dominate.

Out of curiosity, what sort of range do you see when a 5bet is called preflop for 150+ big blinds in 25NL?

My model is predicting villains range in general is is:

AK: 34%
AA: 19%
KK: 14.5%
QQ: 11.7%
JJ: 4.5%
AQ: 4.0%
TT: 1.8%
...and ~11% random hands that should never be calling.

Keep in mind, that this is their range without factoring in our KK which blocks his KK and AK which will also increasing the proportion of worse hands that he will have.

Does this seem significantly different than what you've seen in your data for 5bet pots 150bb+ deep at 25NL?

Out of curiosity, I filtered on my hands at 25NL and looked for 5bet pots preflop that were 150bb+ deep, and I only had 4 samples if I filtered them correctly. The hands shown were:

- AKs
- 44
- AQo
- KK
- AKo
- A8o
- AA
- ATo

It's obviously only a sample of 4 hands haha, but these don't exactly look like super tight calling ranges, even though they theoretically 'should be'. I also see an average fold to 5bet of ~20% if I'm using the correct stat in poker tracker.