Coinsidering a hero ...
Runout, blockers, blah
BB: 91.8 BB
Hero (UTG): 100.6 BB
CO: 126 BB
BTN: 78.8 BB
SB: 120 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♦ 8♦
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) Q♣ 8♠ K♣
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB raises to 18 BB, Hero calls 14 BB
Turn: (42.4 BB, 2 players) Q♠
BB checks, Hero checks
River: (42.4 BB, 2 players) 4♠
BB bets 70.8 BB and is all-in, hero?
6 Replies
Probably just jam flop since he’s likely fishy.
Call looks good.
Interested in results.
I called. I can see logic in jamming flop
I find these types of fish river jams are accidentally quite well polarised and usually require more contextual information/paying attention or dare i say 'instinct' to get right. i.e. extremely fish dependent on this = air or super nuts. Plus it feels like MDA can't help much when all it likely shows is a polarised range from a schizophrenic fish subtype.
The only answer is...
I like the call on the flop, you wanna keep in his trash and can always shove turn on his bet and you are IP. Depends on fish profile, vpip/pfr and how aggro they are, have they shoved a few times before? are they mostly passive and so on? have you seen them run bluffs? Stats like cbet flop turn and river, wwsf will help if you play on a site that lets you use a hud. There are some obvious bluff candidates JT ATo type holdings and t9 type stuff. Another key questions is if this player can do this with trips. Fishies can overvalue hands. The thinner they can go for value, the tougher it will be to overbluff.
I would guess vs the average fish this is a losing call. Overbets and shoves are often underbluffed in my experience, but things such as timing, previous cases of trapping in other hands (more likely to repeat behaviour, so could check boats here on the turn if he did similar thing in the past).
The more they xR flop and the wider their bb defense/vpip the easier it is to overbluff in their shoes. So I would only call if that criteria is met and if they are aggro (you can pick up with stats or through showdowns).
Im not a big fan of using mda for fish, is this 22/12/2 type , or is this 50/30/20 whale - you cannot treat them the same imo.
I don't think calling is good after the big flop cbet gets raised. I'd expect fish to mostly call all draws, and they're going to be 88/Q8/KQ heavy. They'll have all of the offsuit Q8/KQ too and it makes sense for a fish to play all of those hands this way.
Right, thanks. Results:
Spoiler
BB: 91.8 BB
Hero (UTG): 100.6 BB
CO: 126 BB
BTN: 78.8 BB
SB: 120 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♦ 8♦
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) Q♣ 8♠ K♣
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB raises to 18 BB, Hero calls 14 BB
Turn: (42.4 BB, 2 players) Q♠
BB checks, Hero checks
River: (42.4 BB, 2 players) 4♠
BB bets 70.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 70.8 BB
BB shows Q♦ Q♥ (Four of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 69%, Flop 91%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows K♦ 8♦ (Two Pair, Kings and Queens)
(Pre 31%, Flop 9%, Turn 0%)
BB wins 174.8 BB
Honestly, I'm getting absolutely QQQQuadded to death at the moment. This isn't right!