2pair bluffcatcher

2pair bluffcatcher

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 20.59, 3Bet Preflop: 5.97, Hands: 177)
BB: 112.5 BB (VPIP: 29.93, PFR: 21.41, 3Bet Preflop: 13.25, Hands: 421)
Hero (UTG): 131 BB
CO: 121.9 BB (VPIP: 20.70, PFR: 15.95, 3Bet Preflop: 5.04, Hands: 907)
BTN: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 19.90, PFR: 18.43, 3Bet Preflop: 8.90, Hands: 418)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T Q

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 3 Q 8
BB checks, Hero bets 2.6 BB, BB raises to 10 BB, Hero calls 7.4 BB

Turn: (25.5 BB, 2 players) T
BB bets 22 BB, Hero calls 22 BB

River: (69.5 BB, 2 players) 7
BB bets 78 BB and is all-in, ...

Is this a fold or are there to many missed draws to not call this off.

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29 January 2025 at 09:37 AM
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6 Replies



BB looks a bit looser, J9o shouldnt be in his bb defense range vs 2.5x rfi. So you lose to 33 88 J9s which is 10 combos. It also depends how thin he goes for value. AQo should be pure call pre, AQs should be mostly call pre, so he could even xR B B worse for value; he can also have Q8s or QT for chop. I think we call here. The overbet shove isnt great but you cannot have much nutted value either, 33 is folded by most in this formation and you may opt to fastplay 88 on the turn. On the other hand he can have a wide variety of bluffs to choose from. Given his stats i call here 100% of the time and fistpump in the air, if he was 15/12/3 nit we could fold. He has so many hands to choose from. 3x(43s 53s stuff) to triple, JT to triple, it is hard to imagine we dont meet pot odds of 35%


I think a fish will jam merged here but only in the sense they'll have lots of sets so I'm ok folding.


But is our opponent a fish?


I think it is a fold. CR bet shove vs UTG on a connected board is incredibly under-bluffed. Most players will also be inclined to check the turn too often with their Tx bluffs.

Flop is likely close to a fold for that size - Solver typically mixes folds with TPs that lack backdoor flush draws vs a large CR in this UTG configuration.

If his postflop aggression is way out of line he could over do the missed flush draw combos, especially if he doesn't have J9o in his preflop range, but I think vs UTG this is less likely.


by rbrtioh k

I think it is a fold. CR bet shove vs UTG on a connected board is incredibly under-bluffed. Most players will also be inclined to check the turn too often with their Tx bluffs.

Flop is likely close to a fold for that size - Solver typically mixes folds with TPs that lack backdoor flush draws vs a large CR in this UTG configuration.

If his postflop aggression is way out of line he could over do the missed flush draw combos, especially if he doesn't have J9o in his preflop range, but I think vs UTG

Would you not extrapolate from his stats that there is higher likelihood of aggression postflop? His value range seems kinda thin it won't take many bluffs. Also it may be worth noting that the table is 5 handed so it is effective MP vs BB - in my pool I would eliminate QQ entirely so only 2 sets possible.


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by greenpickle k

Would you not extrapolate from his stats that there is higher likelihood of aggression postflop? His value range seems kinda thin it won't take many bluffs. Also it may be worth noting that the table is 5 handed so it is effective MP vs BB - in my pool I would eliminate QQ entirely so only 2 sets possible.

Yeah I agree, its certainly a profile I would consider calling vs.

As far as the value/bluff ratio goes, some of the Ax and Kx flush draws are going to 3bet pre, Qh is blocked, JT makes a pair (frequency wise even at 100nl bluffing with those pair+draw combos is way too low) and J9 a straight. The same issues come up with Tx/9x/8x FD combos.

Another factor is that the value range plays check-raise, bet, shove nearly pure, whereas some draws just check-call and most players won't fire both turn and river with their missed draws.

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