QQ in DEEP TROUBLE

What calls a 4bet and shoves on a connected low board in micros?

I'm thinking 88+, A2s-A5s, KQs+, AJs+, AQo+. I can't really see SC or low pairs. Not much you beat there.

Open to any critique of my logic.

If we give villain 88-QQ, all suited As and AsKx, we have about 70% equity. There is actually a lot we do beat here if your range assessment is accurate.

If the villain is not a nit, i guess we have to call.

Maybe just check turn 😃

Is this considering only spades Ax? Seems too high because V won't c/r with any other suited As other than A4. I think we are mostly beat here as well and would prefer just checking back turn. AP I think it's a fold.

This is all AsXs, which i agree the villain wont have (but that means we should be even better here than my calculations, unless im missing something). Not sure what do you mean by your second sentence, would villain not x/r with, say, AsJs?

Basically what i was thinking is "if villain does this with overpairs and flushes, are we good" and it looks like we are. Even if we remove any overpair without a spade and give him all the suited As (which again some of the the villain wont have here) we're still ahead at 56% with the villain's range of JcJs,JdJs,JhJs,TcTs,TdTs,ThTs,9c9s,9d9s,9h9s,8c8s,8d8s,8h8s,AsKs,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,AsKc,AsKd,AsKh . If i add AA and KK, which i didnt count because of a call pre OOP, only then we are behind at 44%, which is still more than we need to call this pot sized raise.

Now of course if this range read is wrong, everything else is moot.

That's fine, I think I misunderstood when you said "all suited As" > clearly the s means spades and not any two suited cards. I was just thinking that 70% seemed too high of a number for our equity given he'd only c/r with suited As (we lost), AsKx and overpairs - but it is explained because there are many overpair combinations. I'm a bit skeptical V would c/r on this wet board with 88-JJ though as we might be also representing QQ+ here.

Aye, file me in camp meh

If he x/r flop then I think it's an easy shove, but this turn shove is leaden with equity

RESULT:

UTG: 274.8 BB
CO: 170.6 BB
Hero (BTN): 176.2 BB
SB: 164.2 BB
BB: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♠ Q♦

UTG raises to 3 BB, CO raises to 10.4 BB, Hero raises to 25 BB, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 14.6 BB

Flop: (54.4 BB, 2 players) 2♠ 3♥ 6♠
CO checks, Hero bets 17 BB, CO calls 17 BB

Turn: (88.4 BB, 2 players) 5♠
CO checks, Hero bets 27.8 BB, CO raises to 128.6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 100.8 BB

River: (345.6 BB, 2 players) 6♦

CO shows A♥ A♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Pre 82%, Flop 91%, Turn 92%)
Hero shows Q♠ Q♦ (Two Pair, Queens and Sixes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 9%, Turn 8%)
CO wins 328.4 BB

Ah the classic "i have aces, im so smart, im gonna call out of position and then im gonna shove and hope the opponent doesnt have any of the hands that beat me now" move

I don't see any problem with the way CO played the hand.