STFU and eat the cooler?
I don't know. Do we call this down? So many alarm bells. Should we just shut up and eat the cooler?
Hero (UTG): 173.6 BB
MP: 110.4 BB
CO: 127.4 BB
BTN: 120.4 BB
SB: 112.2 BB
BB: 101.4 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♥ A♠
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 9 BB
Flop: (24.4 BB, 2 players) 9♥ J♥ T♦
BB bets 10.6 BB, Hero calls 10.6 BB
Turn: (45.6 BB, 2 players) A♥
BB bets 32.6 BB, Hero calls 32.6 BB
River: (110.8 BB, 2 players) K♦
BB bets 46.2 BB and is all-in, waaaaa
11 Replies
I think i get out of the way. People dont 3b enough from BB, people dont bluff enough on triple broadway flush boards, people dont triple barrel bluff enough and we dont really beat any value. Yeah the price is great, and it could be just a desperate fish trying to get you off the pot, but without a read im probably not calling (in reality, of course im calling, im a fish and i cant get away from a hand with two pictures)
^^^ summarises my thoughts. Managed to fold but idk. I think it might be one of those spots where equity just disintegrates and you should only call a certain BC class
With the Ah, Jh, 9h on the board and Kh in your hand they can't have much flush. Do you think they are capable of 3betting 54s, 65s etc... preflop ? Otherwise their line is weird: on the flop "I don't fear your 99, TT, JJ, KQ", on the turn & river "I have a flush"
I have the same belief as bigfishinsmallpond that microstakes average player is underbluffing all streets here. I like you disciplined fold on the river even getting 12321:1 pot odds, while flop & turn were standard calls I imagine.
That sounds like one of those IQ tests: predict the next three numbers in the following sequence: 123211..???
Yeah it's a good point, the K♥ blocker is a very big deal as far as realising equity. I'm actually leaning towards jamming turn for that reason.
EDIT: wow we actually have an equity advantage vs oop's value range ott. I think shove it!
As a losing player I need better than 2 pair on the river. Looks like he is milking you. Less than half on the flop. 2/3 on turn and then all-in.
It's probably a fold on the turn. Your turn range isn't correct (you should add 99, J9 at a discount), and the outs you have are nowhere near clean. I'd say you have closer to 45% equity on the turn (and maybe even less). Calling the turn w/ those outs when you don't even have 1/2 pot sized bet left, just doesn't make much sense. And trying to shove when you're at an equity disadvantage doesn't make sense either since you have no FE.
Reason I thought shove is not for FE but to make sure we get paid when the draws hit, which i don't think is a given if they X river.
Not sold much on 99/J9 here. At least at any kind of frequency that would skew the GTO significantly. And even then, at ~45% .. wouldn't we have a clear call? Counterfeits are included in the math no?
Reason I thought shove is not for FE but to make sure we get paid when the draws hit, which i don't think is a given if they X river.
Not sold much on 99/J9 here. At least at any kind of frequency that would skew the GTO significantly. And even then, at ~45% .. wouldn't we have a clear call? Counterfeits are included in the math no?
Is there a reason you don't post opponent stats w/ your hands? I agree there of course won't be a lot of 99/J9, but depending on our opponent, some could be in there. I punched this hand up and had 42% equity. I think I misread the hand initially though, so call/fold is ok.
That sounds like one of those IQ tests: predict the next three numbers in the following sequence: 123211..???
Yeah it's a good point, the K♥ blocker is a very big deal as far as realising equity. I'm actually leaning towards jamming turn for that reason.
EDIT: wow we actually have an equity advantage vs oop's value range ott. I think shove it!
Do i understand correctly that you give him QQ KK on the turn 100% ? this is my result when i put it into equilab

I gave villain one combo 54 spades as a random bluff but even this very unlikley only intuitive bluff would be turning a hand like QQ with hearth into a bluff. Also i think the fact that this board hits you crazy good makes it less likley that he will just bet a hand like 54 spade even if he 3bet it pre.
Also the timing would be great to know on turn if he bet pretty quick i would also discount him turning QQ into a bluff that needs some more thinking i guess.
So with the random bluff 54s combo it gets already pretty close with the call on turn. So if he would bet quick the turn i would discount bluffs and overfold because then our eq drops to 27% we dont have the odds anymore to call if he tank bet then fine call i guess but never all in imo.
River just super clear fold to me looks to me like i said based on the flop and his sizing on the flop i highly doubt him having here any 45s air type hands so he would need to turn some AJ or JT into a bluff wich is not happning with your range having percieved a **** tone of Qx yourself.
So i like the fold but i would say you percieving this situation as a potential cooler is the issue wich indicates a need to work on paying more attention to small details like timing tells and small sizing differences and also just how ranges are constructed and how your range is percieved by villain for example here we are not capped at all and we have plenty of Qx so intuitvly his brain will try to prevent him lossing money by not comming up with the idea to bluff now TT set with the hearth blocker on the river because he could check and just win some of the time so also pay more attention to intuitive and unintuitve based on perception and rangeconsturcion etc. imo this will help you.
If someone has a different assumption of the rangeconstruction etc. i am happy to dicuss it further
good points, that mistake skewed the data somewhat!
Timing wise iirc he was quite quick and confident which also leans fold turn I agree. Appreciate the corrections giova.