Is my river call okay?

he will have here AKo with A diamond 3 combos and k diamond like 1-2 comobos i guess and some AJs in hearths and some 65s 67s in heart etc.
AA and KK will either get it in pre or turn some of the time so effectivly he has them lets say 25-50% of the time = 6 combos
then we will have QQ 2 combos and i dont think everyone is going for thin value here every time with AQ so lets say 2 combo = 4 combos
Flushes AKs so overall value combos = 11 combos approximitly
he bet 50% on river so if we find 4 intuitive bluff combos it is fine to call.
Already if he just bluff AKo with a diamond + 1 combo with k diamond we have a call as soon he has also some suited connectors and some AJs type hands etc in there it is a clear call.
So well played i think just important to not focus to much on our blockers and realy think about villains potenial intuitive bluffs

I agree with this.

Seems okay to me, nh.

I've wrestled with whether we should be 4betting this hand pre (at micros) for a while, and I've concluded it's a bad idea because:

a) IP will overcall and underraise, which means
b) we're basically turning our hand into a wasteful bluff that nearly always bet/folds (good luck getting JJ in here) and hates most flops/runouts at a lower spr

Plus correct me if I'm wrong, but 4betting JJ/TT here as per gto seems wasteful vs a specifically above average/linear 3b range.

AP, I don't like the calldown. IP will have far more than 2 combos of AQ here imo. We block AJ and JT♦. Their river range is mostly pairs that nearly always check.

I wasn't 4betting pure FWIW.

Same logic applies.

While it's good to be flexible with preflop ranges/adapt where appropriate there is no point in mixing to 'balance' or any other reason @ 5nl. Nobody is exploiting you. If they are over 3betting it'll be pretty obvious over time and then sure, JJ = a nice fight back because now they have all that crappy air 3b range that hates 4bets and we retain decent equity against when called. (eg. I would play this hand AP against an aggro fish all day)

EDIT: actually i would X turn and let them hang themselves. but only if i had a read

This is 500NL fyi.

Oh sry... i'm being a dunce. 4betty ki-yay

This is a super interesting hand, especially considering it's from 500NL! I have a predictive model that is extremely accurate at a variety of stakes, and I ran your hand through it at 500NL to see what it thinks.

So you need to call 48.5bb to win 200bb pot, which means you need ~24% equity to make it a +EV call assuming we ignore rake.

When you check the river, my model predicts that villain will jam ~55% of the time and will check back ~45% of the time.

When villain jams and you call on the river, my model predicts that the top hand combos in villains range are:

AA: 20.7%
QQ: 19.2%
AQ: 8.2%
AK: 5.4%
KK: 5.3%
88: 4.6%
JJ: 3.5%
AJ (Flush): 2.9%
KQ: 2.7%
TT: 2.6%

So villain should have one of those ten hands roughly 75% of the time.

In terms of hand classes, villain should have top pair 11.8%, and have an overpair 26% and a set 25.6% of the time! They will also have a flush 12.8%.

They will have a high card bluff 9.9% of the time and will have an underpair/low pair bluff about 13% of the time.

Overall with JJ, your equity is roughly ~23.1% which actually makes this call very slightly -EV, and this is without considering any rake at all.

With that in mind, I think you could go either way with a call/fold as it is roughly 0EV and only slightly -EV. Hope you found that interesting or helpful 😀

Just a quick note as well for the predictions I posted above, they are not taking your hand into account as blockers. If you'd like, I can re-run it as well to see how that would impact a call/fold EV and villains range.

Thanks for the analysis above. What software do you use? Yes, try running it with the J of diamond flush blocker factored in.

I have developed a set of large machine learning models that have seen billions of spots and are able to accurately predict players actions & ranges in any spots and many stakes. I believe it is the most accurate predictive model that has ever existed so far when it comes to predicting player ranges & actions. I am obviously biased lol, but I've run many tests on it and it performs surprisingly well and is very accurate.

And yes for sure! I ran the hand through again and this time asked it to factor in your hand with JdJs as a blocker.

This is really interesting, because I was wondering if it would change your equity enough to make it a +EV call.

Surprisingly, it seems like the blockers do impact villains range, but they unfortunately do not increase the equity of your hand against this specific range.

For example, without blockers then villain should have a flush 12.8% of the time, but with your blockers then they should only have a flush 8.3% of the time.

So they have significantly less flushes in their range, but their sets go from 25.6% to 28.2% and their overpairs go from 26% to 28.2%, and their top pair actually goes from 11.8% to 12.5%.

So they have 4.5% less flushes, but they have 5.5% more TP+.

Overall, your equity is predicted to be ~22.1% in this spot, which would mean the EV of calling with your hand in this specific spot is -3.8bb.

One last thing, but you might find it funny to note that the model predicted your hand as the #1 most likely hand for you to have after calling river bet.

The model predicted you as having JJ 18.9% of the time and KK 15.4% of the time. :P