Bet Check Jam (because we have Q high)

I hate it a great deal. I don't think this is a good play or good combo to begin with.

What was your thought process? Do you think it is a good play and if so what is your reasoning?

So as i understand it this is an overfolded node (C-X), IP will have a lot of PPs that just want to showdown, all of which we lose to.

We're not worried about AA/KK, we block QQ/JJ and Tx. Ax has SDV, we also want to unblock AK. (AQ too ideally). Struggling to find a better bluff combo otr tbh.

Sizing wise I thought jam because they are going to overcall below pot. Maybe pot/1.25x is a better line idk. I'd expect villain to fold 99/88/55, Ax and any stray pairs. Sound plausible? Or would you just play this as a one and done?

Honestly he might fold enough to make it okay. He needs to fold a bit over 2/3 of the time and IP likely has a lot of floats otf that are better than Q high and pure fold to a jam in this line... AJs/AQs/AK/KQs/KJs/QJs...

Certainly also has hands like 99/88/ at high frequency that may or may not hero river, some smattering of TXs hands (low freq), some smattering of JJ-KK at a low freq, and maybe a combo or two of boats (77/44/66), possibly even some other weak hands like 54s/65s/76s/87s also at a non-zero frequency.

Might not be that bad... I guess my first impression was spew, but ... it ain't spew if it gets through... right?

Yeah seems like maybe the nut bluff combo

I'd barrel turn once I c-bet this, same blocker/unblocker/no SDV logic in a spot you can't really have equity besides 2 overs

Pot is probably more theory but also IP is supposed to trap turn a lot

Seems good to me. NH

I think we should barrell turn with hearts. Also not sure jam is correct size river. 3/4 makes more sense with what were repping right?

Plugged it in solver. If you're going to play B33 which seems pretty bad on this board then QJ h pure checks because yoy block the folds and are dominated by those suited overcards which call. Once you size up you can start betting this.

If you do nodelock all QJs combos betting 75% OTF for this size then QJh pure barrells turn. Also OTR you very much need to bluff this. Yoy should certainly have traps on the ten turn and this hand has good properties as stated above. I do think jam is the wrong size though. Anything from B40-B100 seems good

This is an interesting hand, it feels like the 2x pot jam would probably be profitable, but I was curious whether a smaller bet size might be even more profitable as a bluff.

What were the stakes of the hand? I ran the hand through the latest version of my predictive model as a 25NL hand, but it might differ with different stakes.

On the river when you jam, you are betting 83bb to win a pot of 124bb (including your bet) which means you need villain to fold at least ~68% of the time to be +EV as a bluff assuming a 5% rake.

My model predicts that with your jam on the river, villain should fold 77.8% of the time! This means that the EV of your jam is +11.9bb so definitely a profitable play.

But I was curious, what about other bet sizes? I ran some different bet sizes on the river through the model and this is what it predicts:

• Bet Size 10bb => 28.3% fold => +8.5bb EV
  
• Bet Size 20bb => 46.7% fold => +7.5bb EV
  
• Bet Size 40bb => 68.1% fold => +13.8bb EV
  
• Bet Size 60bb => 75.4% fold => +14.6bb EV
  

So surprisingly enough, the model predicts that betting 100% pot or 150% pot would have been more profitable than 200% pot here. Mostly because villain is folding roughly the same amount to 60bb or 80bb on the river.

The optimal bluff size here on the river in this specific spot given the runout and prior actions is probably 150% pot and would give you +2.6bb EV increase compared to jamming. But overall, that's only a ~22% increase in your EV compared to just jamming, so not a huge deal and definitely profitable either way to bet big.

It would be a big loss in EV to check or bet small on the river like 50% pot or less. Hope this was interesting or insightful at all 😀

Indeed , your posts are always insightful Benbutton.

I jam way too much so I'm not surprised it's overkill. I also underappreciate the inelasticity of folding ranges so this is a good L.

Seeing the EVs laid out like that is making me wonder this: where the sweet spot for value is in this line? I probably x/jam turn with KK/QQ/Tx so I get here plenty. But if they're overfolding, proportional to betsize, then something like ~b50 with value range is going to be the best efficiency it seems? Or x/jam i suppose but that seems optimistic they'll bet/call >b50

This is how I picture you Ben, when you're off 2+2 processing a hand for us:

This is a really interesting question! I was curious too, so I re-ran the hand through the model but looked to see what the optimal bet size (sweet spot) would be if you were going for value.

One caveat here is that it actually depends a lot on what specific value hand you have, because that will change your equity when you get called by different bet sizes or raised, etc.

But for now, let's just assume that you have 77 in your hand and you want to go for value on the river after you flop a set and turn the boat.

If you have 77 on the river, then let's see what the EV of jamming on the river is.

If you jam river, you are betting 83bb into a pot size of 41bb. The model predicts that villain will call ~22% and fold ~78%, and the model predicts your equity will be ~95% when you are called because villain will actually have quads 5% of the time after calling, and will lose with everything else.

This means that the EV of jamming with 77 is roughly +53.2bb. So definitely very profitable.

But what about smaller sizes? Let's take a look:

• Bet size 20bb => 42.4% call, 46.7% fold, 11% raise and we have 90% equity when they raise => +52.7bb EV
  
• Bet size 40bb => 23% call, 68% fold, 9% raise and we have 85% equity when they raise => +51bb EV
  
• Bet size 83bb => 22% call, 78% fold, and we have 95% equity when they call => +53.2bb EV
  

So it looks like the model predicts that there isn't much difference in EV when value betting with 77 in this spot on the river.

Jamming for 83bb is +53.2bb EV, while betting 40bb would lose you 2.2bb in EV but this is only a ~5% loss in EV so not a big deal.

So when you have the semi-nuts in this spot, the bet size does not have a huge impact on your EV. But if you wanted to be optimal, then jamming or betting 50% pot are slightly more profitable than betting pot.

I think this likely has to do with villains inelastic range. Also this analysis is specific to 77 as your hand, but let me know if you are curious about another specific hand and what the optimal value bet size would be.

Also that picture you posted gave me a good laugh lol!

What Tx do we block? We have hearts and Th is out there. QTo and JTo?

Maybe it is a profitable line though. Still don't know if it's the best.

We do unblock the bdfd combos that might peel flop, so maybe with hearts we want to barrel turns as someone else mentioned. Haven't looked at solver though and I don't know what the mda is.

well played overpairs can go still comfortable for that size and the QJs that unblock the AQ AJ KQs floats from flop is a premium hand to bluff i think. nh

I think he will fold the same range when you barrel the TURN for 75% as the range he will fold OTR as played.

What limit is this? Any stats on the villain? Or notes?