4bet pot bvb marginal hand
GG Poker - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 237.92 BB
Hero (SB): 153.16 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 87.48 BB
MP: 191.04 BB
CO: 102.28 BB
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♣ K♦
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero raises to 25 BB, BB calls 16 BB
Flop: (50 BB, 2 players) Q♦ 8♥ 5♠
Hero bets 16.52 BB, BB raises to 75 BB and is all-in, Hero ???
Should I have checked the flop? Would it matter? Should I call the jam considering vilain never has AK bvb? The only natural bluff I can find is A5s
1 Reply
On the flop, you need to call 58.5bb to win 200bb, so you need roughly 31% equity to make it a +EV call assuming it is 5% rake.
So the question is, do you have 31% equity when calling the jam on the flop with KQ?
I have a predictive model that is extremely accurate and ran your hand through it.
When you call the flop, the most likely hand combos in villains range are:
AQ: 24.2%
AA: 10.5%
KQ: 9.4%
QJ: 4.6%
JT: 4.5%
AJ: 3.6%
TT: 3.5%
99: 3.5%
T9: 3%
76: 2.9%
So villain should have one of those ten hands roughly ~70% of the time.
In terms of hand classes, villain should have top pair 41.5% of the time, and they will have an overpair 12% and will have a high card bluff ~22.4% of the time.
Overall with KQ, your equity after calling should be ~51% so this is actually a very profitable call and would be a huge loss if you folded.
The EV of calling is +38.4bb so this would be a tragedy if you folded.
