Best way to squeeze value with 2 pairs in 4 bet pot

I would fold to the 4bet pre. Even if UTG is 4betting wide enough, which is unlikely, the hand doesn't perform well.

Postflop I would play the same, you can still get the money in easy enough on the river if he wants to bluff catch. I doubt he will be bluffing the river a great deal here, but it makes sense to keep that line open for him.

Yeah I would normally default fold to a 4bet there. It might be me tilting since I recently moved down in stakes after failing at 50nl.

Not that I thought this far, but any thoughts on calling this because we unblock JJ to KK (which matters in 4bet pots) with the idea of never stacking off with 1 pair post flop? Vilain 4betted small and we are a bit more than 100bb deep. 25nl players tend to not 4bet AT-AQ in these positions.

Cool hand, I was wondering whether the bet size you chose on the river was optimal or not. I have a predictive model that is specialised in 25NL stakes and above and ran your model through it to see what the predicted actions and EVs were on the river.

If you jam on the river like you did, the model predicts that villain will fold 73% of the time and call 27% of the time, which means your EV of jamming is +93.4bb assuming a 5% rake. So definitely is very profitable to jam.

I was curious, what if you used a smaller bet size on the river like 40bb instead of 70.2bb.

If you bet 40bb on the river, then villain will fold 58%, and call 32% and will raise ~10%. This means that the EV of betting 40bb on the river would be +94.1bb, which is almost the exact same EV as your jam so not big difference there.

Lastly, what about a small bet size like 20bb on the river? The model predicts villain will fold 45%, call 46%, and raise 8% (they actually raise less often!). So this would mean the EV of this bet would be +88.9bb which is actually a decrease! We would be losing 5bb in EV by betting 20bb instead of jamming.

So overall, the model thinks that any bet size over 50% pot is optimal, and that there's not much difference between 40bb or a jam so was a good bet choice on your part 😀

I doubt it. If they have less bluffs they have much greater concentration of AK (also i wouldn't rule out AQ - I would mostly rule out KJs, KTs, A5s etc). I'd need a cast iron splashy player/whale read to begin calling to target lower combos because they will rarely pay us off post with those hands even when we hit.

Why did you call preflop? What range do you think you are against?

JJ+ AK. Sometimes a bluff

Ok. Lets say that he has JJ+, AK and A5s.

Against that range u have 22.5% equity.

U need at least 31.5% equity (not counting rake).

It is a fold.