25nl middling hand against multiple crazies

Thanks for sharing the hand! Multiway pots are always really interesting and can be difficult to get a handle on optimal play.

I have a set of predictive models that I've developed that are very accurate and can predict players ranges and actions, so I ran your hand through it to see what it thinks about your play.

The main question I was wondering: Should we actually jam with AT here? There are obviously lots of draws that we can get value from, but we are also in a four-way flop where all three villains put in 10bb when the action comes back to us. So are we even good when we get called?

I think we can break this down into two main questions.

1. When we jam with AT here, how often are we getting called?

2. When we do get called, what is our equity against villains range? Do we actually have more than 50% equity when called?

So for the first question, the model predicts that after you jam then you will get folds from all three villains ~45% of the time.

This means that you will get called by at least one villain ~55% of the time, which is very often.

Now for the second question, let's look at the different scenarios that could play out.

Scenario 1: We jam, CO folds, BTN calls, and SB folds.

When BTN calls us, then BTN will have a straight 27.5% of the time! They will have J8 16.7% of the time and they will have 86 about 10.8% of the time.

BTN will also have a set 17.6% of the time (with 77 being ~10%), and they will have two pair ~8.4% of the time, and an overpair ~3%.

So overall, we are crushed by BTN about 56.5% of the time! On top of that, even when we are ahead of villain, they will have a LOT of open ended straight draws and flush draws which give them lots of equity against our hand.

So when BTN calls, our equity is significantly below 50% which makes this a bad value bet when BTN calls us.

Scenario 2: We jam, CO folds, BTN folds, and SB calls.

When SB calls us, it is even worse than when BTN calls us unfortunately!

After SB calls, they will have a straight 21.6% and a set 31.1%, and will have two pair 9.2%! So we are crushed 62% of the time, and the rest of the time villain will have equity with draws.

So against SB, this is a terrible value jam with our hand.

Scenario 3: We jam, CO calls or raises, BTN folds, and SB folds.

Same thing as before, but even a little worse.

When CO calls us, they will have a straight 20.4% and a set 28% and an overpair 16.5%! Oh and two pair 10.4%, which means we are crushed 75.3% and villain still has equity the rest of the time.

If CO raise-jams over our jam, then it gets even worse for us.

Summary

Overall, you can see that when we jam with AT in this spot, we are going to get called by at least one player 55% of the time, and when they do call then we will have anywhere from 20% equity to 40% equity against their range (at best).

When you make a value bet, you usually want to have at least 50% equity when called for it to be a 'good' value bet.

Overall, I think this might be a big overplay of your hand in this spot. It is very -EV to be jamming here on the flop and is a big spew.

But I'm curious to hear the outcome of the hand 😀

Not sure we wanna jam here.
Are we expecting to get called by worse?
We either way still have alot of equity and want all the villains in the pot when we do spike the supernits.

Also don't think we want to lead on this flop like ever.

Yeah it's kind of a weird merge. I would think it's problematic b/c you hardly get called and have good equity. You're just hoping OP has an overpair he can fold and nobody else has two pair+, or a mega draw. I think we can probably just fold flop with this action.

I think villains will find a fold with worse Tx due to the jam. I am just calling OTF as played and hoping for a brick OTT.

Don't jam. Hand is very mediocre

I wouldnt jam, sometimes they have potential broadways and some 2pairs. Might even sneak a set… dont ask me why but i learnt it the hard way. Also, u are blocking some flush draws too, and if u draw an A it would be cherry on top…. So slow play it imo

SQZ pre to like 15bb? Not sure if anyone mentioned it.