Could you ever Fold Trips here?

For future reference please don’t post results. They are irrelevant to the analysis and definitely make it harder to give an objective opinion on the hand. However as I was rewarding through the hand history, my mind was screaming SET!!! It seemed pretty obvious to me with villain’s line and as I read further and saw your read that he was a nit, that made me more confident. I’m not sure I could have found the fold button in your shoes in the hear of battle, but looking at it objectively it seems like a fold at some point would have been in order.

I mean a nit calls an open then over calls your theee bet PF, then donks the flop into a three way pot. What else could he have here? If he does this with AK or AQ, he really isn’t a nit.

Without a read I am calling. If the villain is really nitty it might be a fold OTR. We still have 4 outs OTT.

I dont understand why people think its a good idea to continue when someone barrels on a multiway flop that was 3bet pre…you really think TPTK is gonna be good here i dont think so

I think I might have to disagree here, at least in general against population. I would agree if it was just TPTK, but on the turn we hit trips with top kicker.

I have a predictive model that estimates what players ranges are given all of the pre-flop action & stack sizes, etc.

My model predicts that villain will only have a full house ~30.2% of the time and will have a straight ~5.8% of the time.

For example, the model predicts the villains range after we call is:

88: 11.8%
66: 11.1%
97: 4.8%
AQ: 4.1%
AJ: 3%
AT: 3%
55: 2.5%
T9: 2.4%
A9: 2.3%
77: 2.2%

So villain should have one of those ten hands about 47% of the time.

Overall, the model predicts that our equity with AdKd is ~63% which means the EV of calling is +121.2bb assuming 5% rake uncapped.

So folding on the river would be a massive mistake, you'd be losing over 120bb in EV by folding the river.

The reason we can't fold the river is that villain just doesn't have enough full houses in their range.

I think you're totally right that most villains at these low stakes are rarely triple barrel bluffing here, but the problem is that they have so few 88 and 66 combos in their flop range that they still end up with a low percentage of full houses in their triple barrel range by the river.

One important thing to note, is that this is against a random population player at these stakes. The model is not currently taking into account that the player is a nit, so it's possible that against a super nitty player that maybe the river becomes a fold. But villain would literally need to have a full house 80% of the time in order for it to become a fold, and that just seems kind of unlikely in general to me. But also, villain has a 9% VPIP over 100+ hands so that is surprisingly tight, so it might be possible that it's a fold against this specific player but is definitely a call against population.

K im talkin about folding flop

But it's a 35% pot bet and you're folding TPTK on the flop?

I dont think you understand the way these micro stakes 5 or 10nl players play people arent betting less than monsters here

I would call because i wouldnt suspect 66s calling 3bet preflop..

problem with full houses and quads is that u cant spot it really, only raises an alarm when the board has like pairs...

i tried bluffing with big bets but it wouldn't work with some fishes, even if both of us don't have the nuts I still lose :(

When was the last time you played micros? 5-10 years ago?

maybe a good way is to C/R the flop and if a NIT calls they mean business. really.