River Call with Bottom Pair vs. BTN Jam – Good or Bad

Haha wow, what a hand! I love the confidence on the river bluff catch :P

I have a predictive model that can predict players actions & ranges at different stakes, and I ran your hand through it at 25NL to see what it thinks.

First, let's think about your river call after villain jams over your bet.

You need to call 73.5bb to win a pot of 208.6bb assuming 5% rake. This means that you need at least 35% equity to make this a profitable +EV call.

My model predicts that your equity when calling with Ks3s is about 13.1% lol, which means that the EV of calling is -46.3bb.

So in this case, folding on the river would have saved you 46bb in EV, and calling here is probably a pretty big spew.

It looks like you got pretty lucky on your call. You should only be winning 13% of the time when you call, and you happened to hit that lucky 13% this time 😀

The model predicts that villain should have a high card bluff ~12.7% of the time, and they should have a straight 59% and a set 10% of the time!

The top hands in villains range are:

T8: 44%
86: 13%
J9: 7%
JJ: 6%
Q8: 2.2%
K8: 1.7%

So when you call, villain should have one of those six hands 74% of the time.

The model predicts that A6 is the #22 most likely hand out of 91 possibly hands.

So overall, probably should have folded the river.

One last thing, but what about the turn bet and the river bet? The model predicts that villain will fold 30% of the time on the turn, and will fold 60% of the time on the river.

So the model predicts that the river bet is actually +4bb in EV as a bluff with zero equity.

So the river bet is probably a +EV bluff, but you should have folded when villain jams.