[25n] How to get someone off AK in 3bp?

Nope, calling stations are there for a reason. don't wanna bluff em unless u got something to show... imo.

unless you shove or bet the flop

Haha great question, I've asked myself this many times before :P

I ran your hand through my predictive model at 25NL stakes, and I think there's some interesting takeaways.

On the turn, the model predicts that villain will fold 61.7% to your bet, which means that the EV of your bluff with zero equity would be +4.7bb on the turn. So very profitable bluff.

On the river, the model predicts that villain will only fold 41.6% of the time, which means that the EV of bluffing with zero equity here is -2.6bb.

So good bluff on the turn, bad bluff on the river.

When villain calls your river bet, the top hands in their range are predicted to be:

99: 12.5%
QJ: 9.8%
KJ: 9.3%
AK: 9%
TT: 8.6%
88: 8.3%
AJ: 7.3%
JT: 7.2%
AQ: 6.3%

So villain should have one of those nine hands roughly 78% of the time.

One funny thing, is that the model actually predicts that villain made a profitable call with AK here! The model predicts that it is +3bb EV for villain to call with AK in this spot.

So it might seem like villain is a station (and maybe they are), but at least in this spot they made a good profitable call down against population in 25NL.

Also, you mentioned that it was 'obvious' that villain has AK once they checked flop, but I don't really think that's the case here. When villain checks flop, they likely have AK less than 5% of the time. So it might feel like you know what villain has once they check flop, but there might be some hindsight bias going on here.

In this particular spot, it probably would have been more profitable to bluff the turn and check the river. When you check river, then villain will check river ~57% of the time and when they do check back then you will actually have ~11.5% equity. So the EV of checking on this river with AT would be +2.6bb. So you would have gained 5bb in EV if you check-fold the river instead of bluffing for 75% pot.

One last note: You asked 'how can I get them to fold AK here'. You might find it funny to know that the model actually predicts that villains are folding AK against your river bet!

The model predicts that villains in this spot will be folding AK roughly 50% of the time to your river bet. So you are actually getting some AK to fold on the river, but they aren't folding enough to make it a profitable bluff with this run out & prior actions.

Hope you found any of that to be interesting or helpful 😀

You can over bet river. Prob the only way.