3BP Turn OOP - Theory vs Practice
Winamax - €0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (SB): 107.8 BB
BB: 53.1 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 12.94, 3Bet Preflop: 8.04, Hands: 345)
UTG: 183.2 BB (VPIP: 23.87, PFR: 18.11, 3Bet Preflop: 9.81, Hands: 503)
MP: 178.5 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
CO: 131.6 BB (VPIP: 35.57, PFR: 19.46, 3Bet Preflop: 14.08, Hands: 153)
BTN: 200 BB (VPIP: 16.06, PFR: 12.77, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 559)
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7♠ 7♣
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, BTN calls 8.5 BB
Flop: (23 BB, 2 players) 9♠ 8♥ 8♣
Hero bets 11.5 BB, BTN calls 11.5 BB
Turn: (46 BB, 2 players) 5♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 33 BB, fold,
Villain on the BTN is a NIT, although he OR 'round 30% and Folds to 3B 50%.
Villain's Calling Range is A-high with BDSD, OVerpairs & Underpairs, Sets & Full houses, and Straight and GSD (QJs, QTs, JTs)
OTT, Solver suggests to B50% or X/R-JAM. I Folded it and Solver says it is a Blunder and I am loosing 74 EV.
For what I know, OESDs and FDs wants to check back a lot OTT IP to realise EQ, and AK, AQ type of hands are normally checked back as well by most players.
Villains at these stakes don't find enough bluffs. When villain bet 75% OTT I feel like I am behind very very often.
Is this X/Fold OTT as bad as it looks in practice?
2 Replies
Interesting that solver shoves this to make vilain fold 9x and overpairs, while possible still getting called by very strong draws.
If vilain is a nit, not that likely he has 8x. If he can have 8x, vilain is not nitty enough to make this a fold.
Most likely value is slowplayed/underplayed overpairs. Theres so much crap in his range and I wouldnt assume villain checks all of his draws. Our hand also has 6 outs to a monster.. I would never fold turn.
Interesting hand. The theory is going to change depending on how we range villain. If we use GTOw/GTO ranges then bet big flop (b75)/jam or bet/call turn seems to be the optimal play. A nit won't call enough AQ type hands and they may even fold some 9x and draws. They might overcall FDs but we have ok equity vs those.
But if we use more realistic micro calling ranges for BU (calling 2x more) it gets trickier as IP has way more OPs and 8x than they should. Now we want to bet smaller otf and do much less double barreling (getting jammed on here by a nit is going to be a cry fold imo). So I would play it roughly AP and suspect that's fine vs pop and player type.
Usually cbet/call, check/bet in this spot is overbluffed by fish but when they bet large I would be much more cautious, and having a nitty persona only makes that more concerning.
