Facing Overbet River Deep Stacked with 2nd NF.
Villain is a reg fish, like pretty much all regs at the micros, but he doesn't seem like a total maniac so far. Given that we're 270bbs deep, we almost always 4b the A high and NF OTT, right?
Do we have to call this river, or are micro fish not thinking about our capped range here? I see no reason why he'd be bluffing, honestly, and I don't think he's making that river size with a weaker flush. Obviously we're losing to any A high flush and the 67c straight flush too, both of which he can easily have, over calling in the bb.
PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 107.5 BB
SB: 123.5 BB
BB: 361 BB
UTG: 650.5 BB
MP: 176.5 BB
Hero (CO): 267 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣ 3♣
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, BTN calls 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB
Flop: (6.5 BB, 3 players) 5♣ T♠ 9♣
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn: (6.5 BB, 3 players) 8♣
BB bets 3.5 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, BB raises to 38 BB, Hero calls 26 BB
River: (82.5 BB, 2 players) K♥
BB bets 121 BB
2 Replies
I think having position you would flat the nut flush with some frequency on the turn. I imagine sometimes you will want to call offsuit combos with Ac (AcT, Ac5 ?) drawing to the nuts and sometimes ahead already of villain's bluffs, and you can also turn those offsuit combos into bluffs on the river, representing the nut flush. So logically you would want to have the nut flush sometimes?
With no read this is a tough spot, some very unexperienced players treat any flush as the nuts and folding the K-high flush to one of those players would be a blunder. Since this is NL2, there are definitively unexperienced players in the pool! On the other hand not a lot of players would find a bluff with this line, and I imagine you would have labelled them as "maniac" if they were this type of players.
So they are almost never bluffing and we beat value only if they overvalue a worse flush. We don't need to win every time make the call, far from it, we need less than 38% equity if I am not mistaken. I doubt we have it, I might be mistaken.
I think having position you would flat the nut flush with some frequency on the turn. I imagine sometimes you will want to call offsuit combos with Ac (AcT, Ac5 ?) drawing to the nuts and sometimes ahead already of villain's bluffs, and you can also turn those offsuit combos into bluffs on the river, representing the nut flush. So logically you would want to have the nut flush
Does that mean you would fold?
Would you have any sets in villains value range? If so, would that give us 38%+?
