Fold set here?
PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 100 BB
UTG+1: 87.4 BB
MP: 72.9 BB (VPIP: 21.05, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
MP+1: 169.6 BB (VPIP: 18.09, PFR: 11.70, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 189)
CO: 155.4 BB
BTN: 291.1 BB
Hero (SB): 99 BB
BB: 218.5 BB
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, UTG posts penalty blind 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 4♣ 4♠
UTG checks, fold, MP calls 1 BB, MP+1 calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB raises to 4 BB, UTG calls 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, MP+1 calls 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB
Flop: (20 BB, 5 players) 8♥ 3♦ 4♥
Hero bets 16 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 16 BB
Turn: (52 BB, 2 players) A♥
Hero bets 24.7 BB, MP+1 raises to 126 BB, fold
MP+1 wins 96.3 BB
Looking back I regret it, but what do you think?
3 Replies
when vilain calls, his range is SD, FD, pairs, sets, maybe Ahigh (usually with the Ah). The FDs are over represented, making the turn bet bad. Yes, fold vs shove.
Also, your 45% bet looks weak and invites thiner value shoves (and maybe bluffs) from thinking players. You won't see that many of those at 10nl, but to keep in mind.
This is a bad spot but you should not fold here. You need to call 54.3bb to win a final pot of 210bb. That means you need 26% equity against Villain's range. You have 23% equity against a flush. Villain will have a flush a lot, but he also may have hands like A8s, 33, etc that you are crushing. Bluff and/or spew is also always a possibility. In general, you should try to avoid putting yourself in spots where you might need to fold this much equity.
Also you should check/raise the flop. I really don't like the big donk here.
XR flop I like much more, someone is gonna stab. And if you XR flop, turn will be much easier to jam with little left behind.
