NL10 - KJ

Easy fold my friend

The 8d is a super bad card for you on the river. I might actually consider just check/calling.

3bet pre as played fold. I could get behind a check otr also.

It's pretty close actually. Obv comes down to how many bluff combos you're putting in there. It's probably a slightly -EV call, and probably put him on a tight ~6 combo bluff range at 10nl, so it's a narrow fold.

I'm very curious what people who say fold are putting him on. I would personally be inclined to call. We have the K♦ and the J♦ and 8♦ are already on board. So the only conceivable flushes are like AQdd, ATdd, QT/Q9dd, T9dd. You would think that sets would re-raise the flop/ raise the turn at a high frequency. I don't really buy that he stuck around with an 8 w/ no backup and is now going all in on a flush-completing river. This seems like an easy spot to over bluff considering how narrow the value range is. I haven't done the math, but it would seem that our opponent just bluffing QdTx is getting close to enough combos to hit MDF.

Well... do the math. 😀

I think in real time, when I first look at a board like this, I think opponent is bluff heavy. These are the kinds of hands, at least for me, I have to break out the combos and do the math before I realize it is a narrow fold. I probably end up calling too much in real time in a spot like this.

Xr is too small, turn is too small, I’d like b10-30 fold the river unless they are >50 WWSF

3-bet preflop.

If cc preflop:
I would raise the flop way bigger! Its good flop for his range so you want to play 2 streets if possible
So xraise to 15 or so and jamm turn.

Asplayed:
Check river or bet small and fold vs aggression.

He could be slowplaying his sets, 2pairs, calling with his flushdraw etc

Tough spot. You block KJ/KK, but you’re not blocking boats. At NL10, overbets river usually = nutted, folding isn’t crazy here.

IP more or less uncapped raise jam on the river against OOP XR-B-B50 is def not a line against which I'm catching at 10NL here. I agree that if we play against people we can assume have a decent idea of what they are doing, then it's close with the Kd, maybe even MDA pure against the better regs who might actually overbluff this one. An IP player who does realize the 8 OTR rules out pretty much all but 1 boat combo from SB range could see this is indeed a pretty decent spot to bomb the river, especially against hero MDA non-nutted river B50. The problem here I think it's 10NL, where the vast majority of large river 2bet lines are hugely underbluffed, and most don't think about their decisions for more than 5 seconds there, regs included. I might very well be wrong, but I would need more info on this particular IP villain before even considering calling here at all.