Should I be coming over the top of this flop Check/Raise?
I think I then may have made a further mistake by giving him the river at his price?
Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 135.6 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
UTG+1: 155.1 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
MP: 60.1 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
MP+1: 201.5 BB (VPIP: 22.90, PFR: 16.81, 3Bet Preflop: 8.20, Hands: 349)
MP+2: 144.6 BB (VPIP: 22.74, PFR: 14.87, 3Bet Preflop: 6.19, Hands: 591)
CO: 35.2 BB (VPIP: 15.02, PFR: 2.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.93, Hands: 295)
Hero (BTN): 97.3 BB
SB: 114.1 BB (VPIP: 16.77, PFR: 13.48, 3Bet Preflop: 5.82, Hands: 1,294)
BB: 117.7 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 11)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ A♠
fold, UTG+1 raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 5 BB
Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 7♠ 5♠ 9♥
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 6 BB, UTG+1 raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 6 BB
Turn: (40.5 BB, 2 players) 3♦
UTG+1 bets 15.6 BB, Hero calls 15.6 BB
River: (71.7 BB, 2 players) 4♠
UTG+1 bets 120 BB and is all-in, fold
UTG+1 wins 68.2 BB
8 Replies
I think calling flop is fine. I wouldn't think we're piling in a lot of raises on 9 hi where villain has more sets than us and we block possible bluffs with the As. I don't play full ring, but it in 6 max I would think river is close with the spade in your hand. Probably a good fold at micros but I'm not sure.
Hands like TT and JJ do not want to get floatet by Broadway Cards like KQ, KJ etc. so Betting Small on the Flop is not what your whole Range wants to do.
Against Small Turn we want to Raise as Sets would bet bigger and it is mostly triggered by TopPair or OverPairs.
If he has a Set so be it- he should Not have many.
Fold flop I reckon: people don’t donk enough here and their range will be way too strong in general
OTF bet bigger with your part of the range that wants to bet. A small bet doesnt help you on these boards (almost no fold equity).
I think your flop call is good. Good price and he does have all of the sets and flushdraws.
OTT he bets so small, this is weird right? If he has a set he will bet bigger and other wise make a note about him if he plays a set like this.
So I would jamm here with all my over pairs and maybe Bluff jamm with JTs
Don't listen to these nits its easy reraise on the flop. THey are not thinking about ranges they are worried he has set so now their just going to pray he checks the river. Hes utg + 1. HE doesn't 4b. He has TT JJ QQ KK that he could slow play and might of pushed you off the best hand believing hes good. HE has QKs suited flush hands. We do block the nut flush draw but just get it all in. your ahead of most of his range. he might also lower pairs like 5s. Just get it in on the flop. Why make life hard for yourself like this on a board like that where a lot of turn cards don't look to good for you and if he has TT and over comes he shutting it down. Yes all in on the flop. If he has a set oh well. That is part of poker. The board just to dicey to trap AA with. You are playing 10nl against some very weak players that are going to over play any over pair on that board even A9s hand. He might just have 78s with spades to go with it. You have 11 hands on him so I think you played this way to nitty and now you have to fold the river after he showed so much strength on each street. You are not even 100bb deep here. If your like 150bb deep I would def play it the way you did but 100bb play it faster.
Fold flop I reckon: people don’t donk enough here and their range will be way too strong in general
If your folding AA on the flop just cause someone raised you might as well quit poker. You would have to have a very strong read this opponent is a nut peddling nit that only raises sets to fold here. He has any pair or big draw with overs hes going to play it fast cause hes out of position so he can protect his hand and if called gets max value if a flush hits or something. He playing 10nl not 1knl dude.
I used GTO wizard and Equilab to analyze this hand. GTO Wizard gives him a range with mixed frequency calls (22-QQ, A4s, A5s, ATs-AQs, KTs-KQs, JTs, AKo). None of these are pure calls by him, but I think it's safe to assume the average micros player will play most if not all of these hands as pure calls. On the flop our hand has 80% equity against this range. If we give him the tightest possible check raise range (55,77,99-QQ), then we have 64.42% equity against this range. If he is indeed somehow making his calls at mixed frequency, then he has TT-QQ far more often than he has sets, which only makes our equity that much better. From his perspective, he never holds the As and therefore unblocks it therefore he is always more likely to call because we always have that bluff card in our range. If we include as his bluffs (88, KsQs,KsJs,KsTs), then our equity vs his check-raise improves slightly to 66.43%. I'd imagine that the only hand folding when we put the third bet in is 88, as from his perspective all of his other hands are either sets, bluff catchers in a situation where it's more likely that we have a bluff, or are 2overs+FD (looks like lot of equity when he doesn't know we hold aces). Even if his flush draws fold we deny his equity for those hands and return to a situation where when he calls we have 64% equity against his defend range. So I'd say 3 bet all day.
With that being said, maybe calling sometimes is ok, in which case our hand has 70% equity on the turn card versus this same range with bluffs included. The river of course is a horrible card, and the range that I can imagine for him where we may have to defend with this hand is if he goes for extremely thin value with all of his TT-QQ combos when he holds a spade, in which case we have 42% equity vs that betting range (which I think is highly unlikely for someone to be betting at the micros).
Thanks for all the replies lads, appreciate it.