Overpair vs Overbet Multiway
GG Poker - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 154 BB
SB: 116.5 BB
BB: 105 BB
UTG: 272 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 79.5 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ A♦
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) 7♦ T♣ J♦
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets 20 BB, fold, fold, Hero ???
Villain (CO) had VPIP 14 PFR 6 3Bet 2 after 6k hands. I also have one note about him: Checkdown KT on Q77xxr as PFC IP. He's nitty and does not seem to like bluffing. I am not sure what to make of his overbet. I think it's pretty strong and represents more than toppair. I guess toppairs/draws would size smaller like pot size. Villains 3Bet is very small, so there's a chance that it's QQ, which I am ahead of.
5 Replies
Ugly spot.
FLOP
One thing I would do is bet myself rather than check here. If he puts half his stack in with a raise we are happy to fold. In this case it's super painful to let go but I think it's the right play considering what we know.
With these stats with a significant sample size I am thinking 98, JT or Sets, maybe a very occasional KQ diamonds.
Players like this villain with super nit stats only get paid if you chose to pay them. We don't have to call here even if we have aces. 2x overbet is insane multiway. I think it's most likely a set.
Bet flop and if you get raised from the nit, easy fold. As played, I'd fold. Agree with MaxRadioActiv3, looks like a set afraid of being outdrawed.
You've played 6k hands with him and never seen it before so it's a very rare spot and must be value heavy.
You're blocking AJ so don't even consider top pair hands, KJ is not doing this.
More like TJ, 89 or KQdd. QQ is edge case but tiny fraction of his range. You've only invested 3bb, easy fold.
If he starts doing it multiple times a session then you can think about looking him up, you're not getting exploited.
Bet flop, as played call. This guy in position, despite being a nit can have anything, Tx, Jx, draw, etc... if he really is a nit, he'll slow down on the turn after you call an overbet.
Multiway + dynamic board = always bet flop with AA. Once you check and face this sizing from a nit, you’re crushed. Just fold and fix flop strategy.
