bluff catch vs BTN cold caller
Only 6 hands on villain, he played half of them and did 3bet when facing their only opportunity to do so. Not fully stacked. If I had to guess I would say "too loose and too aggro", but might be wrong.
€0.10 NL FAST (6 max)
BTN: 96.5 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 97 BB
UTG: 106.8 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 91.4 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♦ T♦
fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 8♠ 7♣ J♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 6.2 BB, Hero calls 6.2 BB
Turn: (18.9 BB, 2 players) 7♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 18 BB, Hero calls 18 BB
River: (54.9 BB, 2 players) 2♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 69.8 BB and is all-in, Hero ?
6 Replies
I don't think you can make these assumptions after 6 hands. I don't dislike the play though. The flop and brick runout make it easy for villain to overbluff on the river whilst you block straights and unblock a bunch of bluffs.
If you call turn you have to call river because it's the same assumption. Personally I'd fold turn without better info. Too often you can sit at a table and make all kinds of snap 'reads' from abnormal behaviour that turns out to be a fish-on-a-heater type scenario and you get stacked with AJo.
Soul reading fresh fish is not where are our WR comes from. 50 hands with this guy blasting off like a mf... ?? yeah ok, now every BC gets supercharged. But these guys ALWAYS exploit themselves eventually; temporarily sacrificing a little calldown EV > being exploited by a maybe aggrowhale
I'm probably leaning call here simply because of the sizing. He really shouldn't be betting anything other than 7x like this exploitably. And is he turning AJ into a bluff here? He has to leave some possibility you have overs, and you know he likely doesn't. Just doesn't make much sense. Don't think he's betting FH like this on the turn at 5nl.
I'd say it's a +EV call, but not the worst fold w/ only 1/4 stack in.
OK, thanks!
River: (54.9 BB, 2 players) 2♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 69.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 69.8 BB
BTN shows 6♣ 3♣ (One Pair, Sevens)
Hero shows J♦ T♦ (Two Pair, Jacks and Sevens)
Hero wins 184.8 BB
You’re good till river, then it’s all value.
Hmmm. Flop and turn calls are fine.. you’re ahead of draws and weaker Jx. But when he rips river for pot, he’s almost never bluffing.
