Triple barrel, why does solver give up on river?

My guess is that we dont have that many combos that are good enough for a shove (basically sets), and while we do have good enough hands for a small bet, JdTd is not one of them. If you bet every missed draw, you would be way overbluffing, and this specific one double blocks folds (QJs, QTs, AdTd, AdJd, KJ, KT, JTs, JJ, TT all get there with some frequency and mostly fold to a shove; QJs, QTs, JJ, TT, JT mostly fold to a small bet too). I guess that we need to choose the best X% of our garbage to bluff, and JTs is looking to be among the worst

Would be interested in someones who is not a complete noob with solvers' opinion

If the solver bluffs one hand but not another on the river, it’s usually because of their blocking properties.

Here, JThh blocks a lot of folds: JJ–TT, KJ–KT.
And JTss would actually be an even worse theoretical bluff.

The solver will prefer bluffing with hands like 43s, 54s, or other 4x combos that block sets/two pairs.

Also, since the river is a pure brick, it doesn’t improve your range and doesn’t complete any of your turn bluffs, your overall bluff frequency should be relatively low in theory, so you should prioritize the best bluff combos.

Not answering the question but I am surprised this hand is a x/r on the flop, I would have thought we have enough straight draws and backdoor flush draws.

One way to look at it is to compare our range EV (left) across all streets vs the actions gtow wants to take.

OTF we draw our EV from sets, pairs and GSs and OESD. Our Kx retains equity well and the high end value gives us the right to attack a likely fragile cbet range with a modest range of bluffs that are usually drawing to the nuts that can cooler IP.

[IMG]https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/...

However, while it will use a sprinkling of BWs with blockers and backdoor equity we don't have a license to go overboard. Even if the flop is over cbet that doesn't automatically mean all our mixed bluffs become pure raises. It's pretty difficult for IP to mess up their bet/call range on a board as polarised as this.

OTT you are correct it's a great turn for our range and our bluffs, some of which hit TP, and the BWs get a big EV bump to keep barreling.

[IMG]https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/...

But alas.. unfortunately that all crumbles fast OTR and after IP called a big bet on a board they can now rep 2p+ we are floundering with minimal fold equity. Now our blockers stink and if we were overbluffing OTF we are probably waaay overbluffing on this river.

[IMG]https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/...

Lessons

1) Be careful not to overdo flop x/r. Assuming IP will overcbet and overfold are not the same thing. In fact they are allowed to cbet range here and lose very minimal EV. It's unlikely they're making enough of a mistake for us to go nuclear with all marginal combos that barely breakeven vs gto.

2) Pay more attention to the range that calls big bets OTT, and how narrow a range we can rep overall. Most semi-competent players are going to look at this board and think 'well I probably only lose to a few sets' and call somewhere close enough to protect their range. When you look at where the EV is flowing per street you can see how rapidly things swing back against us and if you don't pick up on it in game we can easily trap ourselves into this kind of classic overpunt scenario.

TLDR; it's not just about the river. It's often about the way range construction rewires itself per street. Overbluffs on earlier streets, however justified in context, can magnify into poison later if we don't attune to this fickle EV barometer.

Basically, all the folds you were targeting (like KQ, KJ) are gone by river. Only hands left are AK, AQ, maybe some A2s/A4s, so triple barrel doesn’t print anymore.

Thanks a lot for the deep analysis, that helped a lot!