Nit raising on the river. RUN !
Hey ! My opponent is a nit 17/12
Preflop I removed some hands because he will 3bet them he has 10% 3bet.
I'm sure the fold is correct river, I'm just wondering if the bet is correct RIVER even with my paire of 7. I wanted to make him fold, looks like it's okay but I don't know as it's a nit if it's a good idea.
3 Replies
- Sorry, I hate the bet on the turn. Unless you size up (at least to pot, but maybe overbet), I don't think you're folding any of the villain's range out. Tight villain has range advantage here. I would check OOP and give up to any bet.
- I'm never betting on the river. Yes, you can target the Qx or 9x. Villain arrives with thick value heavy range. Kx, two pairs, JT, 99, even Ax of clubs
Wrong bet size one the turn, it looks like a nice hand to bluff but overbet works better. You could overbet turn and shove some rivers, although I am not sure club rivers are allowed (maybe they are). They never have KK, QQ, they are supposed to 3bet some JT preflop (you can discount that because they are nit), they need to refrain from raising 99 and JT every time on the flop... If you overbet turn and shove a blank river it will get through pretty often, they will even fold KJ, but on a club river I am not too sure.
I solved the spot and in fact we do very few overbet on the turn and J7ss doesn't qualify, but your bet size happens sometimes. In general it prefers to bet smaller. However if you do the same mistake as me and overbet turn, shoving a blank river like 2h is mandatory.
On the river after betting for your size on the turn it infrequently bets again for your size on the river, although not with your exact hand, it prefers hearts or diamonds rather than spade, go figure.
But in this optimal solution BB does a lot of x/c with 99 and JT on the flop, I believe in reality they will x/r flop pretty often.
