Weird river spot?
Rush and cash nl50 on gg poker:
Really weird spot here on the river I think.
Hero in CO opens 4c3c for 2x.
Standard open / blind steal in these type of games. Bit of an auto pilot raise if I'm being honest and maybe I should have looked at villan in the button first and re-evaluated. Hero is approx 200bb deep. I know the usual answer on here is fold pre in these spots, but I am pretty laggy and blind stealing is massively profitable in fast fold poker.
Button is villan who calls. It's fast fold so I don't have a direct read, but his smart hud tells me he is 43-16 through 93 hands, he is also on a stack of over 300bb, so think we pretty much have a classic fish on a heater here.
Hero has decent volume on this mode and this is not a name I recognise.
Sb and bb fold.
Flop:
Pot is 5.5bb
Ks 4d 4s
Villan looks like a fishy station, and the king is right in his wheel house here. Can give him kq right though to k8 for certain, maybe even wonkier suited kings. All the pocket pairs pretty much from JJ down he probably calls with also.
Hero bets 75% pot ~4bb
Villan calls
Turn is 2c
Pot is ~13.5bb
Pretty much the same thought process here. K is bang in Villans wheel house and his stats suggest fishy station. Hero bets 75% again. ~10bb
Villan calls.
River is Ac
Pot is ~33.5bb
Villans likely range here is basically comprised of missed flush draws and kings in hero's mind. Yes he might have a 4, but the board has an a and k out so we can't be out-kicked.
The question in heros mind is do we bet for value from a king, or check for the bluff from the missed flush draw?
Hero feels like this villan probably won't bet a missed draw here so goes for value and bets almost full pot ~30bb.
Villans min raises.....
Pot is now 123bb, and hero has to call 30bb.
This was kind of a wtf for me.
Villan surely can't have aces or kings full as he would raise pre flop.
53 doesn't make any sence as even a fishy villa in fast fold dumps that on the flop, and probably doesn't raise it on a paired board?
A4 would make sence, but on a 2flush board you would think this gets raised on flop or turn by this type of player? Maybe I'm reaching here a little.
K4 I think is probably folded pre. Again maybe I'm reaching, but in fast fold this isn't the type of hand even a lp fish is calling a raise with when they can fold and get instantly prettier cards.
22 is scary, feels like this is a possibility.
AK makes a lot of sence for this type of villan to show up with here.
Hero has not really enough time to work this all out, and giving villan AK combos here means this is surely a call, when the only other hands that make sence are a4 and 22.
Hero is annoyed because he knows in fast fold poker a raise on the river is always a super strong range. Throwing away 3 of a kind to river aggression really isn't that big of deal here.
So the only question is does the villan have enough combos of AK and possible missed draw bluffs (feels unlikely he has much of these) here to make this call, vs the a4 and 22 which is the part of Villans value range that makes sence.
I haven't posted one of these in a long while, so be gentle.
5 Replies
One thing you don't mention here but that I think is possible is Axs. Do you think villain ever clicks it back on the river having called twice with a flush draw and now improving to top pair?
As played, I don't see a world in which I'm folding here. Your hand is very disguised and given his stats, he could have a whole host of trash. I think we can discount 53 (even 5s3s) because is really calling two streets on a paired board with that? A4 would surely raise turn or maybe he even raises flop given the spades and the fact you may have some Kx. To me this looks like air (spade combos which also include some Ax which he thinks he's now betting for value). I'd just call and move on with my life.
"I know the usual answer on here is fold pre in these spots, but I am pretty laggy and blind stealing is massively profitable in fast fold poker."
But here you are, with trips vs a "fish", not knowing what to do in a very big pot. Opening this hand was "massively profitable" indeed.
It's not even interesting, you have such pot odds, come on this is an autocall.
You should have bet less on the river to start with. But as played, it's a very narrow call. It's closer than probably some regs would think, because after you bet all streets, someone check min-raising the river is almost always the nuts at these stakes. Yes, you're getting an insane price, and they only need to be bluffing ~20% of the time. That's probably happening right around that % or maybe even less at your stakes.
For reference hero made the call, figuring there was enough Ak combos to make this work for such a small raise.
In fast fold in this spot I give him precisely 0 bluffs so it came down to a maths question which I couldnt quite work out perfectly at the time, given the lack of time to make decisions.
Anyway villan turns up with 3s5s for a wheel. Which kind of makes sence, but that's a tough hand to find when you only have about 10s to make a decision.
