Can Hero wriggle off the hook? CAREER ENDING DECISION

trivial fold imo. Think about raising if deeper and he's good enough to fold 2 pair.

If it makes it any better (probably not), i have no idea what to do here either. To be fair, i dont know what to do in most hands, but im trying my best.

Can we credibly represent the nuts here, having not raised on the turn? I dont think so. Maybe we could donk pot or over pot on this river (another option is to donk blockbet, but idk if its ever a good play) to represent the allegedly strongest xc-xc-donk line with our nut blocker? (and maybe its merged or some ****, i dont really know how merge bets look in practice, but i guess we could get looked up by a worse bluffcatcher). I guess we could win at showdown sometimes, but i dont think its often. Either way, i dont think raising here is good after checking every street.

Could villain be value betting worse? Dont think so, 3 streets with a flush draw getting there. However, he probably knows that we probably dont have a flush (i might be leveling myself here). Still, i dont think he value bets a king or a weak tp like AT or worse. So, i guess we are bluffcatching.

What are his bluffs though (that we beat)? You have the prime bluff candidate. Kc offsuit would have to be specifically 3 combos of KcQx to not beat you. Maybe QQ, TT (if he bets that flop and turn), QcJx for a gutshot that picked up a third pair and is turning it into a bluff? Like 15 combos is pushing it, and he has much more for value.

Do we have many better hands here? I guess we could have small flushes that xc xc xc (but do those call the biggish flop cbet besides QcTc that has a gutshot to maybe make it worth it, but that would probably raise turn), but with most of our better than our nut one pair, i think we raise somewhere before the river. So i guess from MDF perspective it gotta be a call?

I dont know, i guess personally i like a 25/100/150% donk and happily fold to a shove. As played, i think i fold and then post it here so better poker minds can tell me im stupid.

Why can't we have the nut flush?

I would think raising turn OOP w top pair + nfd was pretty standard. Is that wrong?

Yeah x/cing would be standard.

Why? Is that because we have sdv? I would think that we would both get called by worse, and have reasonable equity vs better (and maybe some fold equity vs better too, on a second thought - maybe not, AK/sets is probably not folding). Does it make our range skewed towards bluffs and specifically flush draws if we raise?

What do we do if we xc turn and hit the river? How do we get paid off except by another flush?

Yeah, we're ahead of his bluffs and some thin value but behind most of what would call a raise. We also run the risk of getting jammed on when reopening the action and that would really suck given we're drawing to the stones.

If we think villain will only bet a flush otr and check back 2 pair/sets/straights then we should probably donk. But that wouldn't be typical, even most nits should go for another street here especially given it was only a backdoor flush that got there. Would check raise river with a flush barring a strong reason not to.

I see. Thanks for your answers. Sorry for derailing Ceres

fold

hey, derail away, it's not my internet

Thanks. And thank god too, for i did fold, thus saving my poker career... hooray!!

I prefer linear flop raises in spots like this where we massively underrealise as their range is too strong- I’d be tempted to fold the turn btw. I probably won’t but you know.

I *might* donk a huge size here on the river as a bluff but I doubt I would on this texture as I don’t give a ton of credit for regs hero folding sets and two pairs.

As played just fold the river and don’t think about it much.

I actually logged in to my account for the first time in 4 years because this post caught my eye. I don't understand any part of the concept you're talking about with linear flop raises Andy, can you please explain it, because it sounds like it could be an important thing I don't know about.
What do we gain by making a linear x/r with AQ on flop vs a 3/4 cbet? I tried thinking through it but couldn't understand.
My thoughts were: We're sticking in another bet vs his top end hands that we could have instead paid in a x/c, x/c line and seen a river, but if we x/r flop now we x turn and then fold vs a stab. Edit: or maybe we can x/c if villain is bluff happy but now again we/re paying way more to get to river.

Or maybe it might be worth a 1/4 barrel on turn after x/r... but now we're sticking in even more money vs his top end and we're not getting called by all that much worse this way. Whereas if we x/c flop, turn goes x/x , now we have a big sized value probe vs those worse hands that would have 3/4 cb and called a x/r, but we get the option to x/fold turn if it's a valueheavy villain, and also we get the option to go huge probe vs a turn xback if the villain is call happy.

I don't have any understanding of what you mean that we realize more if we x/r linear?
Thanks in advance!

One pair hands taking heat really like to have reads on the opponent, which apparently we have not, although OP does seem to operate under the assumption that the villain is not a maniac.

A very tigh player rising UTG might play no worse ace than AJs, which obviously we wouldn´t like come the turn.

Jam river prints

vs overbet?

Fold.

Do not jam here as there are multiple bad data points.

B70 OTF is very value heavy and river OB on Flush complete river is very value heavy. UTGvsBB SRP B70 OTF is so value heavy that MDA prefers to not check-raise bluffs in this formation and vs this sizing.

Blockers only matter in neutral spots. This is not one of them.