NL25 - KK set taking heat on 4KAT3
Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 5 players
UTG: $26.31 (105 bb)
CO (Hero): $25.32 (101 bb)
BU: $25.00 (100 bb)
SB: $17.08 (68 bb)
BB: $44.53 (178 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with K♦ K♣
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.63, 2 players fold, BB calls $0.38
Flop: ($1.36) 4♠ K♠ A♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.75
Turn: ($2.86) T♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB raises to $6.43, Hero calls $3.93
River: ($15.72) 3♥ (2 players)
BB bets $36.72 (all-in), Hero ?
info on villain:
1st time I see him, one tabler, 50/25/10 over 30 hands. Regs are not on waiting list for the table -- for whales there are up to 6 queue-ing.
Timing tell: villain c/r-d quickly on turn then jammed quickly on river.
I think turn call is better than jam. If we get the full house we beat just about everything he has.
Really smells like QJ to me and I block many two pair combos.
16 QJ, 3x 44, 3xAA, 9x AT, 3x TT, 3x KT, 3x AK.
So we beat 21 combos and lose to 19. BUT we can discount AK and AA here as he likely 3bets those. So that makes it 21 to 13.
If he is semi-competent he can also put me on AK and not be this aggressive with AT and KT....
Easy call or close spot? Thanks.
5 Replies
Took me a while to realize that you added the combos wrong. Its 18 we beat vs 16 we lose to if you remove AK and AA, so should be an easy call. Depending on how often we think he would do that with two pair, might be a little less easy. You need about 35% equity to call off, and if he never does that with two pair (and worse), you only have ~27% (if i calculated everything correctly), so that would become a fold.
Its closer than i initially thought. I dont know about 25nl population, but from a guy with those stats (even over a small sample) at my 2nl stakes i would expect two pair and worse (wouldnt be surprised to see QQ, JJ, random Q9 or A4 or something) at least some percentage of the time, so i guess i would have to call.
Oh and this is only value of course. I could see stuff like missed spades or combo draws like AsJs taking that line too.
This is a flop where you should start with over bet otf, vs someone who is fish you kind have to call it off. Its not like you have huge +ev call but it should be bigger then 0
Yeah I prefer larger on the flop. You block the weaker end of the calling range and anything worse than that folds to most bet sizes. The draws are also to the nuts and rarely folding.
As above have said I think its relatively close. AK and AA 3bet pre and 44 check raises flop some %. And TT doesn't always make it to the turn on this board. I think some recreationals will notice that you have sized up on this turn and not always overplay AT, but for the 30 hand sample size it would be too soon to make that assumption, so I think call it ok.
OB flop but as played.
Turn is always a jam. Fish value raise by absolute hand strength so even though it is underbluffed they will over value hands like AT/TT in these spots which you unblock. Worst case scenario is he has QJ and you have 10 outs. Best case is you are 95%+ vs his XR.
Fish also have close to 0% folding range after xc-xr when you 3bet jam turn which is good for us.
As played snap call since you beat value.
