Should I go broke with Bottom Set?
GG Poker - $0.05 Ante $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP: 72.6 BB
MP+1: 35.4 BB
MP+2: 249.6 BB
Hero (CO): 228.2 BB
BTN: 200 BB
SB: 200 BB
BB: 200 BB
UTG: 200 BB
UTG+1: 228.8 BB
9 players post ante of 0.4 BB, SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 5 BB) Hero has 2♣ 2♦
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, fold, SB calls 0.6 BB, BB checks
Flop: (7.6 BB, 4 players) 6♦ 2♠ 8♥
SB checks, BB checks, MP+2 checks, Hero bets 4.2 BB, SB calls 4.2 BB, fold, MP+2 raises to 11 BB, Hero raises to 31 BB, fold, MP+2 raises to 248.2 BB and is all-in, Hero ?
Should I go broke postflop? Based on the MP openlimp I would underweight 88s, so I only loose to 66. Overplays from 2pairs, overpairs or 97 are possible, but rather unlikely. Also it's a limped pot with high SPR, so I have no need to defend bottom set here.
2 Replies
Limping along with pocket 2s is fine for set-mining, especially with deep stacks.
Your re-raise looks fine to protect your set from draws and get value. After the villain's shove, you face an expensive decision.
What are you losing to? Sets: 66 (possible), 88 (less likely due to preflop limp).
What are you beating?
Overpairs: Unlikely since they would probably raise preflop.
Two-pair hands: 86s, possibly played aggressively by weaker players.
Draws: Hands like 54s, 97s.
Pot odds:
You need to call ~195 BB more to win ~465 BB total.
You need around 42% equity to call profitably.
Given the unknown nature of the opponent and the potential for overplayed draws, two pairs and Over Pairs calling here is reasonable but risky.
If you think Villain is fishy, their shove range is wider, making this a good call overall.
Judging by the limp, this guy is a fish and could easily be blasting with the normal fishy plan of "oh i limp AA and then reraise, im so smart", overpairs, two pairs and random top pairs and draws. Lets be generous and say you lose to 6 combos of sets, he has way more other combos that you beat in his range, both in terms of value and bluffs. I think you gotta call, unless you have some other info that this specific guy only puts his stack in with the nuts (and to a fish, a random overpair or two pair might as well be the nuts).
