Interesting WCOOP 2-7 Triple Draw Hand

1. I would fold after the initial 3bet unless maybe I held 75552, 65552 type of hand.

2. Easy fold after the first draw.

3. I don't have a problem with pat on J high since the SB is still drawing. If he leads out after the 3rd draw you are most likely done but you need to mix it up and play bluff catcher from time to time.

Other opinions are welcome as I am trying the learn this game along with Badugi.

Opposite of all this :(

Both players played their hands perfectly except LJ could consider folding preflop the first time around

You have more experience than I, thanks for sharing your strategies. So drawing two to an 8 even though your opponent is drawing one after the first draw and betting is considered ok. Also, I guess I'm playing too tight trying to start with 752xx or better. Would a starting hand of 952xx be OK?

No, the difference between starting with 752 and 852 is substantial but potentially the 852 is still playable, the difference between 852 and 952 is massive. I'm comfortable saying you never draw to a 9 pre.

You aren't thinking about predraw hands right if you are only looking at the top card like that. 752 = 742 = 732 > 762 > 652 >> 653. There are other factors at work.

Your question about continuing after first draw makes me think you aren't used to fixed limit games, you just have to get some experience at how often you need to continue getting 8:1 or more.

Obviously never folding before the river, but whats wrong with patting the J and taking your 50-odd% ?

It's at least a little close but consider how weak and capped the IP player's range is here. On the river he can never happily put in a bet and will face a bet fairly often, or he can play 1-1 IP with an uncapped range and sometimes get 2 bets in good in a 50/50 spot.

There is plenty of stuff that you have to freeze with here (including this hand sometimes imo), and clearly you need to do a job of balancing that with medium-strong hands too so you can put in a bet or even two now and then. Hey with the J you can even bluff-raise sometimes to get a thin 9 or T that bets into you to fold!
I just think 865 is a reverse implied odds type of hand to break to here. I guess Troutulator can solve it pretty quickly but I am on a Mac right now.
Fun to play the hand out with a T, 9, or 7 here and think about what you might do.

On the river the jack low is the hand losing the money. Even if your opponent overbluffs the river you are losing on that bet and are only calling due to pot odds. So this aspect must be taken into account when considering hot/cold equities of pat/break decision

The 8652 in position I would imagine is relatively neutral depending what it’s up against.

It’s possible I’m misunderstanding what you are saying but calling and patting with J8 is not a freeze. A freeze is when you pat behind a pat

I agree with this. You can run a toy game in Pio for this river spot (I've shown how on my youtube channel for example) and even if you give the OOP a slightly stronger D1 range, the IP player will have + implied odds in 1-1, so yeah I would take what you said and go a step further and say 8652 is very happy to play 1-1 here.

The first two sentences of Scotch post dont make any sense to me. J-low makes money if your opponent is not balanced and you play correctly. How are we losing by calling vs someone who overbluffs? I mean we are only ever calling a bet on the river due to pot odds.

@DD: Your PIO sims (or at least those you showed on your vid) are for river actions in 1-1 spots no?

Im certainly not suggesting that keeping J is a slam dunk here but I think its closer than you are saying. I think SB has an equity advantage when we both draw, and we have the equity advantage when we pat. Yes, we realise better when we both draw, but does that make up the difference? I think the argument that we wont know what to do on the river if we face a bet is a weak one. As you yourself said in the recent video on the learnmixgames channel....play poker! We will be in a similar spot with half the deck on the river anyway.

As an aside, isn't it fun to argue over stuff instead of having the answer like we do for PLO and NLHE!?

I agree Scotch worded it poorly but I think what he meant (and I agree with) is that IP in the 1-0 capped range spot will have lower EV than his equity, meaning he has reverse implied odds unless villain plays poorly.

Yeah I did a 1-1 symmetrical range spot, I'm just saying you can tinker with the ranges to model whatever you want. I think the 1-1 equities should be close unless SB is a colossal nit, but even if I grant your premise I think you are under-rating how good the 1-1 game is for IP. Beyond that I'll just say that this is maybe a pet peeve of mine because every player seems to prefer being pat psychologically, and so I might be using this as an example of the concept more than I care about the actual spot. I appreciate the discussion / comments for sure 😀

Perhaps I didn’t explain as clearly as I could but after the 2nd draw you have a pat or break decision and this has implications on river betting round

Jack low probably has more hot/cold but then there’s the river which impacts and lowers overall expectation

A Jack low is losing money on the river if say your opponent is over bluffing to where you have best hand 25% of the time but need it to be good around 12%, or something like that. We are just talking about that bet but clearly you have odds to call.

If you had the ability to declare yourself all in on the turn you would certainly do that with jack low. Unless they are massively over betting with more bluff cards than value but in practice don’t really see that

In contrast I thought 2568 was either neutral or winning a little but DD did some cool work on that spot

I still think it feels like going down the road of well the river is going to be hard to play so I will do the thing that makes it easier now even if its worse. Its kind of like jamming the turn in NLHE because you are afraid you wont know what to do when the draw comes in and you face a river bet. However what follows shows I am at least a bit wrong.

For all my talk of liking the argument, I couldn't resist sending up the solver bat-signal for this one! Breaking the J is a huge hot/cold equity loss vs range (60/40) and still 55/45 vs his exact hand (us having seen three 5s seems very important). However as you guys suggest we do claw a lot of it back on the river. It appears that this underlying draw is pretty much exactly neutral, so we can do either! I wonder how you guys would feel about patting T86 vs J86 here. Now we are clearly doing the right thing patting in terms of overall EV but face a similarly uncomfortable river.

Another thing I kind of forgot about when focusing on the pat or break decision is whether raising and patting is superior to calling, as it uncaps our range. I wonder if we should ever call and pat in a 1-2 spot?

No, it’s not going down the “I’m scurred to play the river with a Jack” at all. It’s a limit game, you can just click call if your opponent is capable of bluffing at least 2-3 cards. And it’s not like you aren’t playing poker in a 1/1 spot

The main point is that even if you are up against someone who bluffs a little too much you would prefer to be all in with a jack. So this should make it clear you are losing money on the river betting round and this erodes some or all of benefit gleaned by patting with 5% more equity.

And then if we make money IP with this draw it creates a big difference

To answer a few more, you are 100% betting and patting T8652. And again the issue isn’t being uncomfortable, it’s losing money on that betting round. But capturing so much equity is worth it.

Yes, you can call and pat in this spot especially those holdings playing as a freeze.

And yes I think raising and patting with this hand is viable but reasons and math would be many many paragraphs. But when calling I prefer a break

Not sure what you mean by the solver bat signal, feel free to PM me 😀

I did a little work this morning cuz I like to argue, I was wrong about one thing - given the IP player is supposed to continue turn and draw to some really weak hands, in 1-1 spot here I estimate OOP has around 55% equity and has slight +implied odds (Pio has its Equity Realization at 101.5%). BUT, in the 1-0 spot with a capped and weak Pat range for IP the OOP guy drops to 40% overall equity but 110% eq realization! Pretty substantial diff in implied odds.

I don't think the solution is you never call and pat, you just want your hand to be stronger or weaker than this, and not "waste" a good draw IP. We don't get to just raise everything in 1-2, its too costly and OOP just has overwhelming range advantage.